Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves will take the field against their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in a Friday showdown. Fox SportsNet Florida will be televising the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Miami (+135) is the underdog against Atlanta (-145) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -130 for the under and +110 for the over. There’s a runline of Braves -1.5 (+100) and Marlins +1.5 (-120) for this matchup.
The Braves are 68-49 SU and are 55-61 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 5.0 units ATS. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 43-71 SU and 57-56 ATS. The team’s lost 7.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.4 units ATS.
Miami games have an over/under record of 50-54-9 in 2019. The Braves have been a decent over bet with a total record of 59-51-6.
Right-hander Julio Teheran is the probable starter for Atlanta. Teheran (6-7, 3.46 ERA) has racked up 119 strikeouts in 130 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with 15 strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year (three starts).
The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Caleb Smith (7-5, 3.35 ERA), who’s got 123 strikeouts and 35 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.05. Smith is 1-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA across two starts against Atlanta this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.54 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.27, along with a K-per-9 of 9.18.
The Braves offense has slashed .263/.340/.461 on its way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been led by outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who have combined to launch 59 home runs. Acuna Jr. is hitting .295/.375/.522 with 30 home runs, 75 RBIs, 94 runs and 26 steals, while Freeman is hitting .307 with 29 homers, 92 RBIs and 91 runs scored.
For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 4.6 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 54 games against divisional foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.80 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.85.
The Miami hitters have produced 3.6 runs per contest, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .280/.331/.458 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas have led the Marlins’ batters this year. Castro is slashing .251/.277/.366 with 10 home runs, 49 RBIs and 35 runs scored, and the line for Rojas stands at .289/.344/.384 with four homers, 33 RBIs and 44 runs scored.
The Braves have gained 2.2 units and are 12-14 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, as opposed to 10 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 5.5 units and are 39-44 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 34 of those games, as opposed to 43 which went under the total.
Braves at Marlins MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The under has hit in only one of Miami’s last seven games.
- Atlanta has recorded 26.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 28.4 over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 20 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
- The Braves have an OPS of .801 this season, including an OPS of .807 against left-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .664 overall and .689 against lefties.
