Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves are making a road trip to Miami to face a divisional nemesis in the Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Odds
Sportsbooks have Miami (+180) as the underdog to Atlanta (-190). If you’re thinking the game’s total is going to go under 8.5 runs scored, then Vegas is teeing up -115 odds. Picking the over can return -105 odds. This game currently has a runline of Braves -1.5 (-135) and Marlins +1.5 (+115).
The Marlins are 57-55 against the spread (ATS), but just 42-71 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 6.2 units for moneyline bettors and 8.2 units ATS. The Braves have gone 68-48 SU this year and are 54-61 ATS. Overall, the club has accumulated 10.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have lost 6.3 units ATS.
Miami games have an over/under record of 50-54-8 in 2019. Atlanta has been a decent over bet with a total record of 58-51-6.
Dallas Keuchel will get the nod for the visiting Braves. The southpaw Keuchel is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 42 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA against Miami this year.
The Marlins will put the ball in the right hand of Elieser Hernandez (1-4, 5.66 ERA), who has 41 punchouts and 16 walks as well as a 1.35 WHIP. Hernandez is 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Atlanta this year.
Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.45 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.13 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.37.
Braves hitters have slashed .264/.340/.461 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been paced by first baseman Freddie Freeman and left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who’ve collectively belted 58 home runs. Freeman is slashing .309/.400/.576 with 29 home runs, 92 RBIs and 90 runs scored, while Acuna Jr. has a .293 average with 29 homers, 74 RBIs, 93 runs and 26 stolen bases.
In the home-team dugout, Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 4.7 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.69 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 53 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.90 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.83.
The Miami hitters have produced 3.6 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game against divisional foes and 2.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .236/.293/.391 over its last five contests and is 0-5 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas. Castro is slashing .249/.276/.357 with nine home runs, 46 RBIs and 33 runs scored, and the line for Rojas stands at .289/.344/.384 with four homers, 33 RBIs and 44 runs scored.
The Braves have gained 9.3 units and are 43-47 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 45 of those games, compared to 41 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 0.7 units and are 18-11 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 11 which went under the total.
Braves at Marlins MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- The under has hit in four of Atlanta’s last seven games.
- The Marlins have dropped eight of their last nine games SU.
- Miami has recorded 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.2 over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 20 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
- The Braves have a team OPS of .802 this season and an OPS of .800 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .660 overall and .648 versus righties.
