The Arkansas State Red Wolves (-7.5) and Georgia State Panthers are ready to go at it on the turf at Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. This pivotal conference showdown kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN+ is scheduled to televise the action. When the two teams faced one another a year ago, Arkansas State got the victory 51-35.
Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State is a significant home underdog in this SBC game and is currently being given 7.5 points. The Red Wolves are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +250. If one squad can create a bunch of points early it would create a worthwhile live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at a seriously-high 70.5 points.
The over is getting the bulk of the early sharp action, as the game’s O/U originally opened at only 67.
The Red Wolves have gained 2.0 units so far in 2019 and are 2-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-2.
The Panthers are down 1.0 unit this season. The team is 1-1-2 ATS and owns an O/U record of 3-1.
The Red Wolves have gone 3-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Panthers are 2-2 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.
Georgia State enters this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Arkansas State has lost zero straight. The Red Wolves are coming off a 50-43 win over Troy last week. The defense allowed the Trojans to pass for 367 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 143 yards. DK Billingsley had a good day for the Trojans in that one with 103 rushing yards on 20 attempts. Offensively, Layne Hatcher completed 25-of-35 passes for 440 yards, four scores and two interceptions. Jamal Jones (54 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. Omar Bayless (10 receptions, 213 yards, one TD) and Jonathan Adams Jr. (seven catches, 105 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Back on September 21, Texas State took care of this Georgia State crew by a score of 37-34. The Panthers defense allowed the Bobcats to eat up the clock by running for 221 yards on 50 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Caleb Twyford had a solid showing, recording 137 rushing yards on 27 attempts for Texas State. For Georgia State, Dan Ellington completed 24-of-39 passes for 219 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Destin Coates (95 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Ellington (53 yards on 19 carries) led the running game as Sam Pinckney (seven receptions, 95 yards, one TD) and Cornelius McCoy (six catches, 66 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Arkansas State’s run the ball on 44.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia State has a rush percentage of 59.6 percent. The Red Wolves have produced 113.4 rush yards/game and have four touchdowns on the ground this year. The Panthers are logging 207.8 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.
The Red Wolves offense has averaged 319.4 yards through the air overall and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have produced 211.5 pass yards per contest and have 11 total pass scores.
Arkansas State has let opponents run for an average of 195.2 yards and pass for 304.8 yards per game. The Georgia State D has allowed 251.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 244.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Red Wolves are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.93 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have allowed an 8.37 ANY/A.
Hatcher has been more productive than Ellington recently, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 9.48for the year and 10.92 over the past two games. Ellington’s ANY/A is 8.17 for the year and 4.48 across his last two games.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia State Panthers NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Arkansas State, ATS Winner: Arkansas State, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Arkansas State defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times this season. Georgia State has registered eight sacks.
- Both offenses have lost four fumbles this season.
- The Red Wolves offense has tallied nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Panthers have accounted for three such plays.
- The Arkansas State defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while Georgia State has given up three such plays.
- Both defenses have produced four rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Arkansas State offense has recorded 21 running plays of 10+ yards while Georgia State has accounted for 20 such plays.
- The Red Wolves defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up 10 such runs.
- The O/U for Georgia State’s previous outing was set at 63.5. The over cashed in the 37-34 defeat to Texas State.
- Over its last three matches, Georgia State is 0-1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matches, Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Arkansas State’s previous game was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 50-43 triumph over Troy.
- Arkansas State has averaged 3.0 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 3.6 over its last two.
- Georgia State has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its past two.
