A couple of schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Steve Campbell and the South Alabama Jaguars (+13) are set to play host to their conference rival Arkansas State Red Wolves (-13) at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN+.
Betting Preview: South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
South Alabama is entering this SBC game as a big underdog and is currently receiving 13 points. The Red Wolves are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +375. If one squad can find paydirt early it’ll produce a nice betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 57 points.
The over/under has not changed after being set initially at 57. Having said that, the line opened at 12 and sharp bettors tend to be siding with the Red Wolves.
The Red Wolves have gained 2.4 units so far and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-5.
The Jaguars are down 6.0 units this season. The team is 6-5 ATS and owns an O/U record of 3-8.
The Red Wolves are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 1-10 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play.
Arkansas State enters this contest on a zero-game losing skid while South Alabama has won each of its last zero. The Red Wolves are coming off a 38-33 win over Georgia Southern last weekTheir defense allowed the Eagles to run for 299 yards on 50 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Shai Werts was on a different level for the Eagles in that one with 158 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. On the offense, Layne Hatcher completed 19-of-24 passes for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Marcel Murray (just 37 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Jamal Jones (74 yards on 10 carries) mounted the ground attack in the win while Jonathan Adams Jr. (seven receptions, 158 yards, two TDs) and Omar Bayless (seven catches, 113 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
South Alabama just fell 28-15 to Georgia State. The defensive unit allowed the Panthers to kill the clock by running for 176 yards on 48 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Tra Barnett put up a productive showing for Georgia State, accounting for 128 rushing yards and a score on 23 attempts. For South Alabama, Desmond Trotter completed 12-of-25 passes for 218 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Tra Minter (70 rushing yards on 18 attempts) and the signal-caller Trotter (37 yards on 14 carries) led the ground game in the defeat while Brandon Crum (three receptions, 51 yards) and Kawaan Baker (three catches, 56 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Arkansas State has run the ball on 50.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Alabama has a rush percentage of 64.8 percent. The Red Wolves have run for 129.7 yards per game (including 137.6 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 12 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Jags are totaling 167.5 rush yards per game (162.6 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
The Red Wolves offense has averaged 302.7 yards in the air overall (312.6 per game against conference opposition) and has 31 passing scores so far. The Jags have recorded 147.9 pass yards per game (149 in the SBC) and have 10 total pass TDs.
Arkansas State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 223 yards and throw for 256.9 yards per game. The South Alabama defense has allowed 205.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 201.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Red Wolves are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.32 to opposing QBs, while the Jags have given up a 7.21 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hatcher has amassed 1,914 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 70 percent of his 186 attempts with 18 passing scores and seven interceptions. He has a pristine 8.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.49 over the past two games.
Desmond Trotter has managed to complete 28-of-51 passes for 425 yards, four TDs and one INT for South Alabama. His ANY/A stands at 7.40 for the season and 6.80 over his past two games.
When these two squads faced one another a year ago, Arkansas State knocked South Alabama off handily 38-14.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars Free Prediction
SU Winner: Arkansas State, ATS Winner: Arkansas State, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Arkansas State D has sacked opposing QBs 25 times this season. South Alabama has registered just 14 sacks.
- The South Alabama offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while the Arkansas State offense has lost nine.
- The Red Wolves offense has tallied 15 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Jaguars have put up six such plays.
- The Arkansas State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while South Alabama has given up seven such plays.
- The Arkansas State offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while South Alabama has created 15 such runs.
- The Red Wolves defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Jaguars have given up 20 such runs.
- The Over/Under for South Alabama’s previous match going into it was 57.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-15 loss to Georgia State.
- In its last three matchups, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matches, Arkansas State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Arkansas State’s last game was set at 52.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-33 win over Georgia Southern.
- Arkansas State has averaged 3.7 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
- South Alabama has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.2 over its past two.
