Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets ATS Prediction 02/26/20

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The Memphis Grizzlies (28-29), 10-point underdogs, will be at the Toyota Center to square off against the Houston Rockets (37-20) in a Southwest Division matchup. Action gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020, and can be seen on ESPN.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets ATS Odds

Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Rockets (13.5-point favorites) defeated the New York Knicks, 123-112, while the Grizzlies (11.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Los Angeles Clippers, 124-97. The Houston game finished 8 points over the projected point total of 227, while the Memphis game finished 14 points under the projected point total of 235.

Houston played a nearly perfect game. They had a turnover percentage of 11.5 (better than their season average of 12.0) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.593 (above their season average of 0.538). For those same stats, New York had marks of 14.0 and 0.500, respectively. Memphis, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of making free throws (16-22; 72.7 percent). Houston received a boost from James Harden, who finished with 37 points, nine assists and six rebounds. Gorgui Dieng played a pivotal role for Memphis with 14 points and 10 rebounds.

The Grizzlies won the most recent matchup 121-110 to even the season series at one. Ja Morant had a stellar game, with 26 points, eight assists and five rebounds. Memphis had a much better turnover percentage (6.6 vs. 13.4). Houston, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (22-24; 91.7 percent). Memphis covered as a 6-point underdog and the two teams combined to put up 231 points, which was under the projected point total of 238.5.

Of the Grizzlies’ 57 games, 29 have finished under the total. Memphis holds records of 28-29 straight up (SU) and 30-26-1 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas tends to place the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 56.1 percent of their games have ended under the projected point total. Additionally, Houston is 37-20 SU and 29-28 ATS.

The physical Houston offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this meeting. The Rockets currently rank third in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.227, while Memphis is among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 24th-ranked FTA rate of 0.220).

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Grizzlies, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Rockets average 8.4 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Grizzlies rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
  • Memphis ranks first in assists per game (27.1) while Houston ranks 28th (21.5).
  • The Grizzlies rank first in points in the paint per game (57.0) while the Rockets rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.6).
  • Houston averages 18.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Memphis ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed (18.5 per game).
  • Memphis ranks 11th in second chance points per game (13.5) while Houston ranks 24th in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
  • The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (44.1) while the Grizzlies rank 25th (30.7).
  • The Grizzlies rank eighth in rebounds per game (46.0) while the Rockets rank 26th in rebounds allowed per game (46.8).
  • Memphis averages 5.7 blocks per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. Houston ranks 15th in blocks allowed per game (5.1).
  • Memphis averages 17.7 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Houston ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (15.6).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Houston is 3-0 and Memphis is 4-0.
  • The Rockets are 37-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Grizzlies are 27-22.
  • Houston is 14-14 ATS at home, while Memphis is 13-14-1 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 14 of the Rockets’ 28 home games, while 14 of the Grizzlies’ 28 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Rockets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Grizzlies are 2-3.
  • In their last five games, Houston has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Memphis has 4 unders and 1 over.
  • During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (2.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (5.0 below their season average).
  • The Grizzlies’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.8, up from 2.1 for the season.