Miami Heat at Utah Jazz ATS Prediction 02/12/20

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The Utah Jazz (35-18) will be 4.5-point favorites at home in Vivint Smart Home Arena when they clash against the Miami Heat (35-18). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217.5 points and it starts at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 12, 2020.

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Jazz (1.5-point underdogs) defeated the Dallas Mavericks 123-119, while the Heat (7-point favorite) beat the Golden State Warriors 113-101. The Utah game went 25.5 points over the projected point total of 216.5, while the Miami game finished 6 points under the projected point total of 220.

Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a turnover percentage of 10.3 (better than their season average of 12.8) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 17.1 (below their season average of 20.9). Golden State had marks of 14.8 and 13.6, respectively, for those same stats. The Jazz, meanwhile, had a superb offensive rebounding percentage of 31.3 (above their season average of 21.1) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.686 (above their season average of 0.549). Rudy Gobert had a solid performance for Utah, finishing with 17 points and 16 rebounds. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler played a key role for Miami with 21 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

In their first matchup this season, Bam Adebayo led the Heat to a 107-104 victory. He recorded a double-double with 18 points and 13 rebounds. Miami was unable to cover as a 5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 211 points, which was just under the projected point total of 214. Miami did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (24-27; 88.9 percent). Utah, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 12.1).

Matchups involving the Heat have typically finished over the O/U total (56.6 percent). Miami comes into the contest with records of 35-18 straight up (SU) and 28-23-2 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Jazz games, with 28 overs compared to 25 unders. Further, Utah is 35-18 SU and 26-25-2 ATS.

Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Utah currently ranks 26th in possessions per game (100.5) and Miami is 21st (100.9). Moreover, put-back points figure to be rare for the Heat. They rank 27th in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 20.9 percent, while the Jazz are fourth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 79.4 percent).

Miami Heat vs. Utah Jazz Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Jazz rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Heat rank ninth (12.2).
  • Utah ranks fourth in three pointers allowed per game (31.5) while Miami ranks 27th (37.8).
  • The Jazz rank 16th in points in the paint per game (47.9) while the Heat rank 25th (44.8).
  • Miami ranks 22nd in steals per game (7.2) while Utah ranks last (5.8).
  • Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.0) while Miami ranks 25th (18.1).
  • The Jazz rank first in assists allowed per game (20.8) while the Heat rank 20th (24.7).
  • The Heat rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Jazz rank 13th (4.8).
  • Miami is third in the NBA with 42.0 rebounds allowed per game while Utah is fourth with 42.7 rebounds allowed per game.
  • Miami ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.7) while Utah ranks 13th (12.7).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Utah is 12-2 and Miami is 7-1.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat and Jazz are both 34-12.
  • Miami is 12-15-1 ATS on the road, while Utah is 12-11-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 13 of the Jazz’s 24 home games, while 14 of the Heat’s 28 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Utah are both 2-3 ATS.
  • The Heat have 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games, while the Jazz have 3 overs and 2 unders
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 3.7 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 111.2 points per game (0.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.6 points per game (6.3 above their season average).