The Miami Heat (34-18) will travel to the Chase Center to clash with the Golden State Warriors (12-41). The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, February 10, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports Sun.
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors ATS Odds
Both teams lost in their last game. The Heat (1-point favorites) were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 115-109, while the Warriors (14-point underdogs) fell to the Los Angeles Lakers, 125-120. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Miami game went 4.5 points over the projected point total of 219.5, while the Golden State game went 20.5 points over the projected point total of 224.5.
Miami held Portland to an offensive rebounding percentage of 12.2 (below their season average of 22.0) while Golden State forced Los Angeles into a turnover percentage of 19.8 (above their season average of 12.8). Golden State rallied around Marquese Chriss, who put up 26 points and nine rebounds. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder was a key piece for Miami with 18 points and 11 rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Goran Dragic led the Heat to a 122-105 victory. He was the game’s leading scorer with 20 points. Miami covered as a 12-point favorite and the two teams combined for 227 points, which was well over the projected point total of 208. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.8 vs. 11.4). Golden State, meanwhile, did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (35-40; 87.5 percent).
Heat games have a tendency to go over the projected point total (58.8 percent). Miami holds records of 34-18 straight up (SU) and 27-22-2 against the spread (ATS).
Contrary to Miami, Warriors games have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (52.8 percent). Further, Golden State is 12-41 SU and 25-27-1 ATS.
It could be a tough matchup for Golden State on the offensive glass. The Warriors rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage (21.7 percent), while Miami ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.6 percent). Additionally, the Heat rank fourth in effective field goal percentage (0.546), whereas the bottom-tier defense of the Warriors ranks 27th with an effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.550.
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors Betting Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank 25th in points in the paint per game (44.7) while the Warriors rank last (42.8).
- Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (42.1) while Golden State ranks 27th (47.3).
- The Heat average 25.3 assists per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Warriors rank 28th in assists allowed per game (25.8).
- Golden State ranks ninth in points off turnovers (17.5 per game) while Miami ranks 25th in points off turnovers allowed (18.2 per game).
- Miami ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while Golden State ranks 17th (5.1).
- The Heat rank second in fast break points allowed per game (11.6) while the Warriors rank 25th (14.5).
- The Heat rank 12th in three pointers attempted per game (34.4) while the Warriors rank 25th (30.7).
- Golden State ranks 24th in second chance points per game (12.2) while Miami ranks 26th (11.9).
- Golden State ranks fifth in steals per game (8.5) while Miami ranks 22nd (7.1).
- In games where they allow less than 100 points, Golden State is 5-2 and Miami is 7-1.
- In games where they reach 100 points, the Warriors are 12-26 and the Heat are 33-12.
- Miami is 11-14-1 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 11-13-1 ATS at home.
- Of the Heat’s 26 road games, they have 14 overs, 11 unders and 1 push.
- The Warriors have 14 unders and 11 overs in 25 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Warriors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Golden State has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 113.6 points per game (7.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 120.4 points per game (5.6 above their season average).
- The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 3.5 for the season.
