It will be a matchup between two superb defenses when the Texas Longhorns (14-9, 4-6 Big 12), 6-point underdogs, meet the top-ranked Baylor Bears (21-1, 10-0 Big 12) at Frank Erwin Special Events Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 127.5 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 10, 2020.
Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Bears (13-point favorites) defeated the Oklahoma State Cowboys, 78-70, while the Longhorns (2.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Texas Tech Red Raiders, 62-57. The Baylor game went 19 points over the projected point total of 129, while the Texas game finished 10 points under the projected point total of 129.
The Bears forced 15 turnovers and had a free throw rate of 0.339 (above their season average of 0.217). Texas, on the other hand, held Texas Tech to an offensive rebounding percentage of 10.7 (below their season average of 29.0). Matt Coleman III played a key role for Texas with 17 points and seven rebounds. Baylor rallied around Freddie Gillespie, who finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Teague led the Bears to a 59-44 victory. He scored a game-high 21 points. Baylor covered as a 9-point favorite and the two teams combined for 103 points, which was well under the projected point total of 129.5. One of Baylor’s biggest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 14-16 (87.5 percent), while the Longhorns were just 5-15 (33.3 percent).
Of the Bears’ 22 games, 12 have finished under the projected point total. Baylor heads into the contest with records of 21-1 straight up (SU) and 14-8 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Longhorns are involved, as 14 of their 22 games have gone under the total. Texas is 14-9 SU, but they struggle covering the spread (9-14 ATS).
The ineffective offense of Texas will battle against the elite defense of Baylor. The Longhorns rank 256th in offensive efficiency, while the Bears are ninth in defensive efficiency. The Bears should have the advantage on that end of the court. Also, the Bears, who rank seventh in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2 percent), will attempt to exploit the Longhorns, who rank 331st in defensive rebounding percentage (67.2 percent).
Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Free Pick
College Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Baylor ranks 68th in rebounds per game (38.0) while Texas ranks 269th (32.5).
- The Longhorns rank 15th in assists allowed per game (9.8) while the Bears rank 72nd (11.4).
- Texas allows the third-fewest three pointers per game (14.9) while Baylor ranks 58th (19.4).
- The Bears rank 50th in steals per game (7.8) while the Longhorns rank 208th (5.3).
- Texas averages 4.5 blocks per game, which ranks 40th in the nation. Baylor ranks 176th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
- Baylor is 9-2 ATS on the road, while Texas is 4-9 ATS at home.
- The Bears have 6 overs and 5 unders in 11 road games.
- In 13 home games, the Longhorns have 8 unders and 5 overs.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Baylor and Texas are both 3-2 ATS.
- The Bears have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Longhorns have 4 unders and 1 over
- During their last five games, the Bears have scored an average of 71.6 points per game (0.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 60.6 points per game (1.6 above their season average).
- The Longhorns have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Texas has defeated opponents by an average of 1.7 points.
