The Los Angeles Clippers (35-15) will be 6.5-point favorites at home in the Staples Center when they challenge the Miami Heat (34-15). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223 points and it will air on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 5, 2020.
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers ATS Odds
The Heat come in on a high note after easily covering the 2.5-point spread against the Philadelphia 76ers in their last outing, 137-106. The Clippers, meanwhile, beat the San Antonio Spurs,108-105, but failed to cover as 9-point favorites. The Miami game finished 32 points over the projected point total of 211, while the Los Angeles game finished 17 points under the projected point total of 230.
Miami dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an extraordinarily low turnover percentage of 3.0 (better than their season average of 13.1) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.659 (above their season average of 0.546). For those same stats, Philadelphia was 13.0 and 0.512, respectively. The Clippers, on the other hand, knocked down 19 of their 24 free throws (79.2 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.530 vs. 0.484). Los Angeles received a boost from Paul George, who finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler played well for Miami, recording 38 points and seven rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Kawhi Leonard led the Clippers to a 122-117 win. He registered a triple-double with 33 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Los Angeles covered as a 2.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 239 points, which was well over the projected point total of 219. The Clippers’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Heat. Los Angeles had a rate of 23.4, while Miami posted a mark of 19.6.
Of the Heat’s 49 games, 29 have finished over the projected point total. Miami heads into the contest with records of 34-15 straight up (SU) and 27-20-2 against the spread (ATS).
Contrary to Miami, games involving the Clippers have typically gone under the projected point total (56.0 percent). Additionally, Los Angeles is 35-15 SU and 26-23-1 ATS.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Clippers currently rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.5 percent), while Miami ranks third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.3 percent). Moreover, the Heat’s fourth-ranked offense (effective field goal percentage of 0.548) will battle against the Clippers’ third-ranked defense (effective field goal percentage allowed of 0.502).
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Heat average 7.2 steals per game, which ranks 22nd in the NBA. The Clippers rank 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
- Los Angeles ranks fourth in second chance points per game (14.7) while Miami ranks 27th (11.7).
- The Clippers average 17.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Heat rank 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.9).
- Los Angeles ranks second in rebounds per game (48.1) while Miami ranks 17th (45.1).
- Miami averages 33.8 three pointers per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (35.3).
- The Heat rank second in fast break points allowed per game (11.7) while the Clippers rank 23rd (14.4).
- The Heat rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Clippers rank 17th (5.0).
- Los Angeles ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (49.2) while Miami ranks 25th (45.0).
- When allowing under 100 points, Los Angeles is 13-0 and Miami is 7-1.
- The Clippers and Heat are both 33-10 when they reach 100 points.
- Los Angeles is 14-11-1 ATS at home, while Miami is 11-12-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 13 of the Heat’s 24 road games, while 14 of the Clippers’ 26 home games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Los Angeles are both 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.4, up from 4.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Clippers have scored an average of 112.6 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
