The NBA’s top scoring defense will be a 1.5-point underdog at home in Amway Center, when the Orlando Magic (21-27) take on the Miami Heat (32-15). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 206.5 points and it can be seen on Fox SportsNet Florida at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 1, 2020.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic ATS Odds
In the Heat’s last matchup, they fell to the Boston Celtics, 109-101. They failed to cover as 3-point underdogs. Miami’s Bam Adebayo recorded 16 points and 10 rebounds in the game. Boston held the Heat to an effective field goal percentage of 0.421 (below their season average of 0.549). Miami, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (8.9 vs. 13.0). The two teams combined to score 210 points, which was under the O/U total of 221.5.
The last time the Magic played it was against the Heat. The two teams combined for 205 points in that game, which was just under the projected point total of 207. The Heat won 113-92, covering as 6.5-point favorites. Miami made 14 of its 28 three pointers (50.0 percent). Orlando, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (22.4 vs. 9.1). Adebayo put up a triple-double in the victory, with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. With the win, the Heat evened the season series at one game apiece.
Heat games have a tendency to go over the total (59.6 percent). Miami heads into the contest with records of 32-15 straight up (SU) and 25-20-2 against the spread (ATS).
Contrary to Miami, games involving the Magic tend to go under the projected point total (58.3 percent). Further, Orlando is 21-27 SU and 21-23-4 ATS.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Orlando ranks 29th in possessions per game (99.7) and Miami is 22nd (101.2). Furthermore, the Heat, who rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.237), will battle against the Magic, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.168).
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Magic rank 23rd in fast break points per game (11.8) while the Heat rank 25th (10.7).
- Orlando ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while Miami ranks 26th (18.2).
- The Magic rank fourth in steals per game (8.5) while the Heat rank 21st (7.2).
- Orlando ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (33.0) while Miami ranks 28th (37.4).
- Orlando ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.0) while Miami ranks eighth (45.8).
- The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while the Magic rank 22nd (46.1).
- The Magic rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.5) while the Heat rank 14th (12.8).
- Orlando ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.8) while Miami ranks 25th (4.2).
- When allowing less than 100 points, Miami is 6-1 and Orlando is 12-4.
- The Heat are 31-10 when they reach the century mark, while the Magic are 17-10.
- Miami is 10-12-1 ATS on the road, while Orlando is 9-13-2 ATS at home.
- The Heat have 13 overs, 9 unders and 1 push in 23 road games.
- In 24 home games, the Magic have 16 unders and 8 overs.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Magic are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Miami has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Orlando has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 116.6 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.0 points per game (4.7 above their season average).
- The Magic’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.0, up from 1.3 for the season.
