San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat ATS Prediction 01/15/20

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A six-game home winning streak is on the line for the Miami Heat (27-12), who will be 5.5-point favorites when they challenge the San Antonio Spurs (17-21) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 222.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 15, 2020.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

In the Spurs’ last outing, they barely escaped the Toronto Raptors, 105-104, despite being 4.5-point underdogs. The Heat, on the other hand, were topped by the New York Knicks, 124-121, and failed to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. The San Antonio game finished 11 points under the projected point total of 220, while the Miami game went 29.5 points over the projected point total of 215.5.

The Spurs made 22 of their 30 free throws (73.3 percent) and held the Raptors to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.0 (below their season average of 22.7). Miami, meanwhile, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the free throw line (23-28; 82.1 percent). Miami rallied around Jimmy Butler, who put up 25 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. DeMar DeRozan, meanwhile played a key role for San Antonio with 25 points and eight rebounds.

The Heat dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the last matchup, Miami won 110-105. Miami made 16 of its 35 three pointers (45.7 percent). San Antonio, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (19.2 vs. 14.3). This is the first time these teams will battle this year.

Spurs games tend to go over the O/U total (60.5 percent). San Antonio comes into the game with records of 17-21 straight up (SU) and 14-22-2 against the spread (ATS).

Similarly to San Antonio, games featuring the Heat also have a tendency to finish over the total (61.5 percent). Additionally, Miami owns records of 27-12 SU and 21-16-2 ATS.

The prolific offense of Miami (fifth in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 110.3) will go head-to-head against the bottom-tier defense of San Antonio (22nd in the league with a defensive efficiency of 110.0). The Heat figure to have the edge on that side of the ball. Also, the Spurs rank fifth in turnover percentage (12.4 percent), while the Heat rank 22nd in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.3 percent).

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat ATS Pick

Free Prediction: SU Winner – Spurs, ATS Winner – Spurs, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat rank 23rd in points in the paint per game (45.7) while the Spurs rank 27th (44.4).
  • San Antonio ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while Miami ranks 26th (19.0).
  • The Heat rank 14th in three pointers attempted per game (33.3) while the Spurs rank 29th (27.9).
  • San Antonio ranks 11th in fast break points per game (14.4) while Miami ranks 25th (11.1).
  • Miami ranks 20th in steals per game (7.5) while San Antonio ranks 26th (6.6).
  • The Spurs rank seventh in blocks per game (5.7) while the Heat rank 27th (4.1).
  • The Heat rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.7) while the Spurs rank 15th (45.7).
  • Miami is 26th in the league with 11.7 second chance points per game while San Antonio is 27th with 11.6 second chance points per game.
  • Miami averages 25.1 assists per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. San Antonio ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (25.6).
  • In games where they allow below 100 points, San Antonio is 1-0 and Miami is 5-1.
  • When scoring above 100 points, the Spurs are 17-17 and the Heat are 26-7.
  • San Antonio is 8-8-2 ATS on the road, while Miami is 12-5-1 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone over in 11 of the Spurs’ 18 road games, while 12 of the Heat’s 18 home games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, San Antonio and Miami have both had 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Spurs are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • During their last five games, the Spurs have scored an average of 119.8 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.6 points per game (1.6 above their season average).
  • The Heat have been outscored by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.7 points.