The Miami Heat (24-9) and their great offense will be 6-point favorites when they welcome the Toronto Raptors (23-11) and their exceptional defense. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215 points and it can be seen on NBATV at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 2, 2020.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat ATS Odds
In the Raptors’ last game, they won big over the Cleveland Cavaliers, 117-97, easily covering as 8-point favorites. The Heat, meanwhile, were blown out by the Washington Wizards, 123-105, and were not able to cover as 14-point underdogs. The Toronto game finished 4 points under the projected point total of 218, while the Miami game went 5 points over the projected point total of 223.
Toronto played a perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.238 (above their season average of 0.211) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.3 (above their season average of 21.8). For those same stats, Cleveland had marks of 0.149 and 18.6, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, did an excellent job of getting and making free throws (29-39; 74.4 percent). Miami was led by Jimmy Butler, who contributed 27 points and six rebounds. Serge Ibaka, meanwhile was a key piece for Toronto with 20 points and 10 rebounds.
In their first matchup this year, Butler led the Heat to a 121-110 victory. He notched a triple-double with 22 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. Miami covered as a 6-point underdog and the two teams combined to score 231 points, which was well over the projected point total of 212. The Heat’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Raptors. Miami had a rate of 20.4, while Toronto posted a mark of 16.7.
Games featuring the Raptors have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Toronto holds records of 23-11 straight up (SU) and 19-15 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Heat’s 33 games, 20 have finished over the total. Additionally, Miami is 24-9 SU and 18-13-2 ATS.
This showdown pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Miami ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and Toronto is second in defensive efficiency. Moreover, the Raptors rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage (21.8 percent), while the Heat rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.5 percent).
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Free Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat average 25.1 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Raptors rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (25.0).
- Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Toronto ranks 26th (47.4).
- The Raptors rank seventh in three pointers attempted per game (35.7) while the Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.2).
- Toronto ranks third in steals allowed per game (6.8) while Miami ranks 22nd (8.2).
- Miami ranks 12th in second chance points allowed per game (12.8) while Toronto ranks 26th (14.5).
- The Raptors rank second in points off turnovers per game (19.4) while the Heat rank 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.1).
- The Raptors rank ninth in blocks per game (5.4) while the Heat rank 25th (4.2).
- Toronto ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.6) while Miami ranks eighth (45.2).
- Toronto ranks second in fast break points per game (18.2) while Miami ranks 24th (11.2).
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 4-1 and Toronto is 11-2.
- The Raptors are 21-8 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 24-5.
- Miami is 10-5-1 ATS at home, while Toronto is 8-7 ATS on the road.
- The Raptors have 10 unders and 5 overs in 15 road games.
- In 16 home games, the Heat have 11 overs and 5 unders.
Bettings Trends:
- The Raptors are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Toronto has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 4 overs and 1 under.
- During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 108.8 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.0 points per game (0.1 above their season average).
- The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 4.2 for the season.
