The league’s top scoring defense will be on the road at Toyota Center, when the Denver Nuggets (23-9) face off with the Houston Rockets (22-11). The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 31, 2019, and will air on NBATV.
Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last outing. The Nuggets (8-point favorites) beat the Sacramento Kings, 120-115, while the Rockets (5-point underdogs) fell to the New Orleans Pelicans, 127-112. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Denver game finished 28 points over the projected point total of 207, while the Houston game finished 16 points over the projected point total of 223.
Denver dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an extraordinary free throw rate of 0.346 (above their season average of 0.168) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.8 (above their season average of 24.6). Sacramento recorded marks of 0.141 and 25.0, respectively, for those same stats. Houston, on the other hand, had a better free throw rate (0.160 vs. 0.088). Isaiah Hartenstein played well for Houston with 19 points and nine rebounds. Meanwhile, Denver received a boost from Will Barton, who contributed 19 points and five assists.
In their first matchup this year, Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets to a 105-95 victory. He registered a double-double with 27 points and 12 rebounds. The two teams combined for 200 points, which was well under the projected point total of 221.5, and Denver covered as a 2-point favorite. The Nuggets’ 12.2 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Rockets, who had a rate of 18.7.
Oddsmakers have a tendency to set the total high when the Nuggets are involved, as 62.5 percent of their games have ended under the O/U total. Denver has a phenomenal 23-9 straight up (SU) record, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (11-16-5 against the spread (ATS)).
Games featuring the Rockets also have typically finished under the total (57.6 percent). Additionally, Houston owns records of 22-11 SU and 17-16 ATS.
This game should be a matchup of opposite styles. Houston prefers an up-and-down style of play (second in possessions per game), while Denver is methodical (27th in possessions per game).
Nuggets at Rockets Free Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Rockets rank 18th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
- Denver ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Houston ranks last (16.5).
- The Nuggets rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while the Rockets rank 24th (18.5).
- Denver averages 48.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Houston ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (50.4).
- Houston ranks fifth in rebounds per game (47.3) while Denver ranks 16th (45.3).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.6) while the Rockets rank 28th in assists allowed per game (26.0).
- The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.8) while the Rockets rank 16th (13.2).
- Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (44.9) while Denver ranks 24th (30.3).
- In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 10-1 and Houston is 3-0.
- The Nuggets are 21-5 when they score above 100 points, while the Rockets are 22-10.
- Houston is 7-8 ATS at home, while Denver is 5-6-2 ATS on the road.
- The Nuggets have 8 unders and 5 overs in 13 road games.
- Of the Rockets’ 15 home games, they have 8 unders and 7 overs.
Bettings Trends:
- The Rockets are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 1-3-1.
- In their last five games, Houston has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Denver has 4 overs and 1 under.
- During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 115.2 points per game (3.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 114.0 points per game (0.3 below their season average).
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 5.2 for the season.
