The New Orleans Pelicans (8-23), 10-point underdogs, will have their hands full against the NBA’s top scoring defense when they go head-to-head against the Denver Nuggets (21-8) at Pepsi Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220 points and it can be seen on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 25, 2019.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Odds
In the Pelicans’ last matchup, they defeated the Portland Trail Blazers, 102-94, despite being 6-point underdogs. The Nuggets, meanwhile, defeated the Phoenix Suns,113-111, but were unable to cover as 2.5-point favorites. The New Orleans game finished 34 points under the projected point total of 230, while the Denver game went 5 points over the projected point total of 219.
The Pelicans held the Trail Blazers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.0 (below their season average of 22.2) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.429 (below their season average of 0.520). Meanwhile, Denver’s 0.647 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Phoenix, who had a mark of 0.557. The Nuggets’ mark was above their season average of 0.514. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with 22 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists to record his fifth triple-double of the year. Brandon Ingram, meanwhile led the way for New Orleans, putting up 19 points, 11 rebounds and five assists.
In their first matchup this season, Jahlil Okafor led the Pelicans to a 122-107 win. He scored a game-high 26 points. The two teams combined to put up 229 points, which was over the projected point total of 223, and New Orleans covered as a 4-point underdog. Getting to the charity stripe was one of New Orleans’ largest advantages. They had 32 free throw attempts, while Denver had just 16.
Pelicans games have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (54.8 percent). New Orleans comes into the game with records of 8-23 straight up (SU) and 10-19-2 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Nuggets’ 29 games, 19 have finished under the total. Denver has a phenomenal 21-8 SU record, but they have a hard time covering the spread (11-14-4 ATS).
Denver figures to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Nuggets currently rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.498), while New Orleans is 19th in effective field goal percentage (0.521).
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Denver ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while New Orleans ranks 24th (18.9).
- The Pelicans rank fifth in fast break points per game (15.8) while the Nuggets rank 24th (11.8).
- Denver ranks eighth in rebounds allowed per game (43.9) while New Orleans ranks 25th (46.6).
- Denver ranks 11th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while New Orleans ranks 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.2).
- The Pelicans rank fifth in three pointers attempted per game (38.4) while the Nuggets rank 25th (30.2).
- The Nuggets average 26.7 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Pelicans rank 21st in assists allowed per game (24.8).
- Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (11.6) while New Orleans ranks 23rd (14.1).
- New Orleans is 2-0 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 10-1.
- The Nuggets are 19-4 when they score over 100 points, while the Pelicans are 8-20.
- New Orleans is 5-9-2 ATS on the road, while Denver is 6-8-2 ATS at home.
- The total has gone under in 11 of the Nuggets’ 16 home games, while 8 of the Pelicans’ 16 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Nuggets are 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Pelicans are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Denver has 4 overs and 1 under, while New Orleans has 4 unders and 1 over.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 114.8 points per game (7.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.8 points per game (2.7 above their season average).
- The Pelicans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 6.2 for the season.
