The Utah Jazz (18-11) travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (21-8). The Jazz are a 4.5-point underdog and will try to prolong their five-game winning streak. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 212 points and action gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 23, 2019.
Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
The Heat were victorious over the New York Knicks in their last game, 129-114, covering as 9-point favorites. The Jazz, on the other hand, beat the Charlotte Hornets, 114-107, resulting in a push. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Miami game finished 26.5 points over the projected point total of 216.5, while the Utah game finished 13 points over the projected point total of 208.
The Jazz made 19 of their 20 free throws (95.0 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.633 (above their season average of 0.529). Meanwhile, Miami played a nearly perfect game. They had a phenomenal free throw rate of 0.325 (above their season average of 0.240) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.675 (above their season average of 0.546). For those same stats, New York was 0.234 and 0.489, respectively. Miami rallied around Bam Adebayo, who contributed 20 points and eight rebounds. Rudy Gobert played a key role for Utah with 17 points and 19 rebounds.
This series was highly competitive last year, as the teams split their two games last season. The Jazz won the last game 111-84. Utah out-rebounded Miami. The Jazz had more offensive rebounds (7 vs. 2), defensive rebounds (45 vs. 28) and total rebounds (52 vs. 30). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Of the Jazz’s 29 games, 15 have finished under the total. Utah is 18-11 straight up (SU), but they have a difficult time covering the spread (10-17-2 against the spread (ATS)).
Heat games have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (58.6 percent). Additionally, Miami owns records of 21-8 SU and 18-9-2 ATS.
Both teams have had a couple of players take their game to the next level over their last five games. Gobert (17 points,16.0 rebounds,1.4 blocks) and Joe Ingles (15 points,6.4 rebounds,5.6 assists,1.4 steals) have been great for the Jazz, while Adebayo (19 points,11.2 rebounds,7.2 assists,1.8 steals,1.6 blocks) and Kendrick Nunn (22 points,4.6 assists) have contributed greatly to the Heat.
Second-chance points might be few and far between for Miami in this showdown. The Heat are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 22nd in offensive rebounding percentage at 21.8 percent. Meanwhile, Utah ranks third in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 80.3 percent. Additionally, the Jazz are among the NBA’s elite at getting to the line, ranking fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.224). The Heat, meanhwile, rank 22nd in opponents’ FTA rate (0.214).
Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Heat rank 25th in fast break points per game (11.3) while the Jazz rank 27th (10.6).
- Miami ranks ninth in steals per game (8.2) while Utah ranks last (6.0).
- The Heat rank 11th in points off turnovers per game (17.6) while the Jazz rank 27th (14.4).
- Miami ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while Utah ranks 18th (5.3).
- Miami ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Utah ranks sixth (43.4).
- The Jazz rank seventh in three pointers allowed per game (32.0) while the Heat rank 27th (37.7).
- The Heat rank 22nd in second chance points per game (12.4) while the Jazz rank 29th (10.4).
- Miami ranks eighth in assists per game (25.5) while Utah ranks 27th (21.7).
- Utah is 6-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 4-1.
- When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 21-4 and the Jazz are 17-6.
- Miami is 10-2-1 ATS at home, while Utah is 5-9-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 9 of the Heat’s 13 home games, while 9 of the Jazz’s 15 road games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Jazz are 1-2-2.
- In their last five games, Miami has 5 overs, while Utah has 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.6, down from 5.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (7.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (1.1 above their season average).
