Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction 12/22/19

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The Milwaukee Bucks (26-4), the league’s top scoring team and 7.5-point favorites, will square off with the Indiana Pacers (20-9) at Fiserv Forum. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 219.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports Midwest – Indiana at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 22, 2019.

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last game. The Bucks (3.5-point underdogs) defeated the New York Knicks 123-102, while the Pacers (5.5-point favorite) beat the Sacramento Kings 119-105. The Milwaukee game went 2 points under the projected point total of 227, while the Indiana game finished 14.5 points over the projected point total of 209.5.

Indiana played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.174 (above their season average of 0.168) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.605 (above their season average of 0.524). Sacramento was 0.143 and 0.505, respectively, for those same stats. The Bucks, on the other hand, had a solid free throw rate of 0.271 (above their season average of 0.202) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.588 (above their season average of 0.562). Milwaukee was lifted by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who accumulated 22 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. This gave him his second triple-double this year. Domantas Sabonis was a key piece for Indiana with 15 points, nine rebounds and six assists.

In their first matchup this season, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to a 102-83 win. He registered a double-double with 26 points and 13 rebounds. Milwaukee covered as a 7.5-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 185 points, which was well under the projected point total of 220.5. Milwaukee’s 0.505 effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Indiana, who had a rate of 0.380.

Of the Pacers’ 29 games, 17 have finished under the O/U total. Indiana heads into the game with records of 20-9 straight up (SU) and 16-11-2 against the spread (ATS).

Unlike Indiana, Bucks games have a tendency to go over the total (55.2 percent). Additionally, Milwaukee is 26-4 SU and 16-13 ATS.

This matchup pits one of the league’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Milwaukee ranks first in effective field goal percentage (0.563) and Indiana is fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.497). Additionally, second chance points could be few and far between for the Pacers. They rank 23rd in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage at 21.6 percent, while the Bucks are second-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 80.8 percent).

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Pick

NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Pacers, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Pacers are second in the NBA with 6.6 steals allowed per game while the Bucks are fourth with 6.7 steals allowed per game.
  • Milwaukee ranks third in three pointers attempted per game (39.5) while Indiana ranks 29th (26.9).
  • The Bucks rank first in rebounds per game (51.0) while the Pacers rank 19th (44.3).
  • Milwaukee ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.2) while Indiana ranks 18th (49.0).
  • Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.1) while Indiana ranks 14th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
  • The Bucks rank first in second chance points allowed per game (10.7) while the Pacers rank 21st (13.6).
  • The Pacers rank fifth in assists allowed per game (22.6) while the Bucks rank 16th (24.2).
  • Indiana averages 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.8).
  • Indiana ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (11.2) while Milwaukee ranks 20th (13.7).
  • Milwaukee is 6-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Indiana is 5-1.
  • In games where they reach 100 points, the Pacers are 20-5 and the Bucks are 26-4.
  • Milwaukee is 9-7 ATS at home, while Indiana is 7-6 ATS on the road.
  • The Pacers have 8 unders and 5 overs in 13 road games.
  • Of the Bucks’ 16 home games, they have 9 overs and 7 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Pacers are 5-0 ATS over their last five games, while the Bucks are 4-1.
  • In their last five games, Indiana has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Milwaukee has 4 overs and 1 under.
  • The Pacers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.8, up from 5.2 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 120.4 points per game (0.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (1.9 above their season average).