A couple of franchises with significantly different offensive systems, the San Francisco 49ers (-11) are gearing up to host the Atlanta Falcons at Levi’s Stadium. This late afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 4:25 p.m. ET and FOX will televise the action.
Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is a big road underdog in this NFC game and is currently getting 11 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to wager $500 to win $100 back on the Niners (-500). The Falcons are getting +340 moneyline odds. There will probably be some solid in-game betting opportunities for the showdown, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points.
The general public hammering both the Falcons and the over. The line originally opened at -12 and the over/under was initially set at just 45.5.
The Falcons are down 1.4 units this season and 4-8-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 5-8.
The 49ers have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors so far, gaining 7.8 units. The team is 8-4-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-7.
The Falcons are only 4-9 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the 49ers are 11-2 SU.
The Falcons are on the upswing after a 40-20 win over Carolina last weekTheir defense allowed the Panthers to rush for 100 yards on 22 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Christian McCaffrey had a productive day for the Panthers in that one with 53 rushing yards on 11 attempts, along with 82 yards on 11 catches. On the offensive side, Matt Ryan completed 20 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Devonta Freeman (84 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Brian Hill (62 yards on nine carries, one TD) spearheaded the running attack in the win while Calvin Ridley (five receptions, 76 yards, one TD) and Julio Jones (five catches, 66 yards) handled the receiving duties.
San Francisco just earned a 48-46 win over New Orleans a week ago. The defense allowed the Saints to pass for 349 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 116 yards. Michael Thomas had a productive outing in the loss for New Orleans, recording 134 yards on 11 catches. For San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 26-of-35 passes for 349 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Raheem Mostert (69 yards on 10 rush attempts, one TD) and Matt Breida (54 yards on six carries) handled the ground game in the win as Emmanuel Sanders (seven receptions, 157 yards, one TD) and George Kittle (six catches, 67 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.
Atlanta has run the ball on 34.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Francisco has a rush percentage of 51.8 percent. The Falcons have produced 80.8 rush yards per game and have seven touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Niners are averaging 149.1 rushing yards per game and have 17 total rush TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then the Niners ought to hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded only 27 sacks while the D-line has registered 45 sacks. The Falcons O-line has given up 41 sacks and their defense has generated only 23 sacks.
The Falcons offensive scheme has logged 318.6 yards/game in the air overall and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Niners have produced 253.5 pass yards per contest and have 26 total pass scores.
Atlanta has allowed opponents to run for an average of 108 yards and pass for 272.9 yards per game. The San Francisco defense has given up 177.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Niners are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.11 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a 7.23 ANY/A.
Garoppolo has been more effective than Ryan lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.28 for the season and 8.70 over his past two outings while Ryan’s ANY/A is 6.44 and 5.86 over his last two.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: 49ers, ATS Winner: Falcons, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The San Francisco defense has notched 45 sacks on the year while Atlanta has just 23.
- Both offenses have lost eight fumbles this season.
- The Falcons offense has tallied four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the 49ers have accounted for six such plays.
- The Atlanta defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while San Francisco has given up five such plays.
- The Atlanta offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Francisco has created 14 such runs.
- The Falcons defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the 49ers have given up nine such runs.
- The Over/Under for San Francisco’s last outing was 46. The over cashed in the team’s 48-46 victory over New Orleans.
- In its last three matches, San Francisco is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three contests, Atlanta is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- San Francisco has won four of its last five games SU, with a -3-point defeat to Baltimore on December 1st accounting for the one loss over that span.
- The Over/Under for Atlanta’s previous game going into it was 48. The over cashed in the team’s 40-20 victory over Carolina.
- Atlanta, as a team, has averaged 4.0 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
- San Francisco has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.3 over its last two.
