The Denver Broncos (+12) are flying east to face their AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. CBS has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Denver is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 12 points in this AFC matchup. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put down $600 to win $100 back on the Chiefs (-600). The Broncos are getting +400 moneyline odds. It appears that there could be some good in-game betting possibilities in this showdown, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 46.5 points.
This game’s opening line was -12. The O/U has not changed after being initially posted at 46.5.
The Broncos are 8-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.6 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-7.
The Chiefs have gained 0.6 units so far. The team is 8-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-6.
The Broncos have gone an ugly 5-8 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 9-4 SU overall and 4-0 SU against divisional foes.
The Broncos are on the upswing after a 38-24 win over Houston in Week 14 where Drew Lock completed 22 passes on 27 attempts for 309 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Phillip Lindsay (only 51 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Courtland Sutton (five receptions, 34 yards) and Noah Fant (four catches, 113 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties.
Kansas City just earned a 23-16 win over New England in Week 14. The allowed the Patriots to put up 204 yards through the air and 94 more on the ground. Julian Edelman had a productive showing in the defeat for New England, recording 95 yards on eight catches. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 26-of-40 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown and one interception. LeSean McCoy (39 yards on 11 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the win as Travis Kelce (seven receptions, 66 yards) and Tyreek Hill (six catches, 62 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Denver has run the ball on 45.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 38.1 percent. The Broncos have rushed for 106.9 yards/game (including 110.3 per game against West opponents) and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Chiefs are logging 93 rushing yards per game (84.3 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Chiefs could hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded only 21 sacks while the D-line has registered 37 sacks. The Broncos O-line has given up 37 sacks and their defense has recorded only 31 sacks.
The Broncos offensive scheme has tallied 216.8 yards/game through the air overall (199.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have recorded 301.9 pass yards per contest (248 in the AFC) and have 25 total pass scores.
Defensively, Denver seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 115.2 yards and pass for 228.8 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 248.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.7 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Broncos have given up an ANY/A of 5.82 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs are yielding an ANY/A of 5.51.
Lock has been more effective than Mahomes of late, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 11.29for the year and 7.95 over the past two games. Mahomes’ ANY/A is 8.70 for the season and 6.04 across his last two outings.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Free Prediction
SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Broncos, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Denver’s last game was set at 42.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-24 win over Houston.
- As a team, Denver has rushed for 3.8 yards per attempt over its past three outings and 3.3 over its last two.
- Kansas City has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 2.9 over its past two.
- The Kansas City offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Denver has let five get away.
- Over its last three games, Denver is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Kansas City’s last game was 47. The under cashed in that 23-16 victory over New England.
- Over its last three contests, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Broncos offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Chiefs have accounted for 16 such plays.
- The Denver defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up six such plays.
- The Denver offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created nine such runs.
- The Broncos defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Chiefs have given up seven such runs.
- The Kansas City defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 37 times this year. Denver has registered just 31 sacks.
