Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat Betting Prediction 12/10/19

Posts AdminArticles, Basketball, NBA

A 10-game home winning streak is on the line for the Miami Heat (17-6) when they clash against the Atlanta Hawks (6-17) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 10, 2019.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds

The last time the Hawks played, they topped the Charlotte Hornets, 122-107, as 1.5-point underdogs. The Heat, meanwhile, topped the Chicago Bulls,110-105, but were not able to cover as 6-point favorites. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Atlanta game went 6.5 points over the projected point total of 222.5, while the Miami game finished 5.5 points over the projected point total of 209.5.

The Hawks had a great effective field goal percentage of 0.582 (above their season average of 0.510) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.2 (above their season average of 23.4). Meanwhile, Miami’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Chicago. The Heat had a rate of 0.455 (above their season average of 0.231), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.275. Bam Adebayo led the way for Miami, finishing with 21 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Trae Young, meanwhile fueled Atlanta with 30 points, nine assists and six rebounds.

The Heat have won both contests against the Hawks this year. The two teams combined for 203 points in their most recent game, which was under the projected point total of 215.5. Miami won 106-97, covering as a 7-point favorite. Miami’s 0.560 effective field goal percentage was its biggest strength over Atlanta, who had a mark of 0.449. DeAndre’ Bembry had a double-double in the loss with 18 points and 10 rebounds.

Oddsmakers are known to place the total low when the Hawks are involved, as 13 of their 23 contests have ended over the total. Atlanta holds records of 6-17 straight up (SU) and 11-12 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Heat games, with 11 overs compared to 11 unders. Moreover, Miami is 17-6 SU and 13-8-2 ATS.

When considering effective field goal percentage, Miami figures to have a significant edge. The sharp-shooting Heat offense ranks third in the NBA in that metric at 0.548, while the porous Atlanta defense is ranked 23rd in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.540). Furthermore, the Hawks rank 29th in turnover percentage (16.1 percent), while the Heat rank fifth in opponents’ turnover percentage (15.2 percent).

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat Odds Pick

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Hawks, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Heat average 24.9 assists per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Hawks rank 18th in assists allowed per game (24.2).
  • Miami ranks third in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Atlanta ranks 29th (7.4).
  • The Heat rank 12th in second chance points allowed per game (12.6) while the Hawks rank 29th (15.3).
  • Miami averages 17.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. Atlanta ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed (19.9 per game).
  • Atlanta averages 32.7 three pointers per game, which ranks 16th in the league. Miami ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (37.0).
  • The Hawks rank fourth in steals per game (8.7) while the Heat rank 24th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
  • The Heat rank 15th in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Hawks rank 26th (42.0).
  • Atlanta ranks 21st in fast break points per game (12.0) while Miami ranks 27th (10.7).
  • Atlanta ranks third in points in the paint per game (53.7) while Miami ranks 21st (45.5).
  • Miami is 4-1 when they allow below 100 points, while Atlanta is 2-0.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Hawks are 6-14 and the Heat are 17-2.
  • Miami is 7-2-1 ATS at home, while Atlanta is 5-7 ATS on the road.
  • The total has gone over in 6 of the Heat’s 10 home games, while 8 of the Hawks’ 12 road games have gone over.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Hawks are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Atlanta has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
  • The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, down from 8.7 for the season.
  • During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 109.0 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.2 points per game (1.7 above their season average).