Head Coach Mike Norvell and the No. 16 Memphis Tigers (-10) are coming into the American Athletic Championship Game as heavy favorites as they prepare to take on Coach Luke Fickell and the No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats. This afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and spectators can catch the action live on ABC.
Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Memphis Tigers
Cincinnati is a live dog in this Saturday pairing and is currently getting 10 points. If they want to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to spend $400 in order to win $100 back on the Tigers (-400). The Bearcats are getting +300 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 57.5 points, and if one side gets out in front early, it’ll likely generate a nice betting opportunity in-game.
Sharp bettors are siding with both the Tigers and the under. The opening line was originally placed at -9 and the total was initially 58.5.
Each team has been profitable this year as the Bearcats have recorded 6.5 units while the Tigers are ahead 7.2 units.
The Bearcats are 10-2 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against conference opponents. The Tigers are 11-1 SU overall and are also 7-1 SU in conference play.
The Bearcats came up short to Memphis 34-24 in a contest where their defense allowed the Tigers to eat up the clock by running for 199 yards on 38 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offense, Ben Bryant completed 20 passes for 229 yards, one score and two interceptions. Michael Warren II (122 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Bryant (-1 yards on 11 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running attack. Alec Pierce (four receptions, 77 yards) and Josiah Deguara (four catches, 46 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Memphis is coming off of a 34-24 win over Cincinnati. Brady White completed 15-of-26 passes for 233 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Kenneth Gainwell (87 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (25 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game while Damonte Coxie (six receptions, 145 yards, one TD) and Gainwell (three catches, 20 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Cincinnati has run the ball on 62.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Memphis has an overall rush percentage of 57.6 percent. The Bearcats have produced 195.7 rush yards per game (including 200.3 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 23 scores on the ground this year. The Tigers are logging 196.4 rushing yards per game (173.8 in conference) and have 27 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Tigers could have an advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has allowed just 19 sacks while the D-line has logged 31 sacks. The Bearcats offensive line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss just 27 times.
The Bearcats offensive scheme has logged 183.6 yards per game in the air overall (164.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Tigers have recorded 287.1 pass yards per contest (301 in the AAC) and have 32 total pass TDs.
Cincinnati has let opponents run for an average of 139.2 yards and pass for 231.6 yards per game. The Memphis defense has allowed 198 yards per game to opposing passers and 167.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bearcats have given up an ANY/A of 5.35 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are yielding an ANY/A of 5.31.
White has been sharper than Bryant of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 10.37 for the season and 6.93 across his past two outings while Bryant’s ANY/A is 5.10 and 3.46 over the past two outings.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other a year ago.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Memphis, ATS Winner: Memphis, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s last game was set at 60. The under cashed in the team’s 34-24 loss to Memphis.
- As a team, Cincinnati has averaged 3.8 yards per rush attempt over its last three outings and 3.7 over its last two.
- Memphis has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
- The Memphis offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Cincinnati has lost eight.
- Over its last three games, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Memphis’ last game was 60. The under cashed in that 34-24 victory over Cincinnati.
- Over its last three matches, Memphis is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Bearcats offense has recorded 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for 22 such plays.
- The Cincinnati defense has allowed 13 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Memphis has given up six such plays.
- The Cincinnati offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Memphis has created 21 such runs.
- The Bearcats defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Tigers have given up 18 such runs.
- The Memphis defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times this year. Cincinnati has produced 27 sacks.
