The Tennessee Titans (+3) are traveling north to face their AFC South foe Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. This key early afternoon game will start at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
In a game featuring two franchises that could very well meet again in the AFC playoffs, Indianapolis is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Titans are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Colts are -140. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 43.5 points. Some solid live betting scenarios may exist during this game.
Early action has been swaying toward the over. The game’s O/U initially opened at only 42.
The Titans are 5-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.4 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-5.
The Colts have lost 2.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 6-5 ATS and also have an O/U record of 6-5.
The Titans are 6-5 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against AFC South opponents. The Colts are 6-5 SU overall and 3-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Titans are coming off a resounding 42-20 win over Jacksonville last week where Ryan Tannehill completed 14-of-18 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Derrick Henry (159 rushing yards on 19 attempts, two TDs) led the running attack in the win. A.J. Brown (four receptions, 135 yards, one TD) and Adam Humphries (three catches, 20 yards) shared the receiving duties.
In Week 12, Houston got the win against this Indianapolis crew by a score of 20-17. The Colts defensive secondary allowed the Texans to air it out for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Will Fuller V had a productive outing, recording 140 yards on seven catches for Houston. For Indianapolis, Jacoby Brissett completed 16-of-25 passes for 129 yards. Jonathan Williams (104 yards on 26 rush attempts, one TD) and Nyheim Hines (51 yards on nine carries) handled the ground game in the defeat while Eric Ebron (four receptions, 44 yards) and Jack Doyle (three catches, 28 yards) led the receiving corps.
Each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Tennessee has run the ball on 48.0 percent of its offensive possessions while Indianapolis has an overall rush percentage of 49.9. The Titans have run for 122.8 yards/game (including 144.7 per game versus South opponents) and have 13 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Colts are averaging 144.2 rushing yards per game (167 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.
Based on the numbers this season, it seems like the Titans could hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, since their running backs has generated 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Colts have registered 4.5 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Titans offense has tallied 237.3 yards/game through the air overall (239 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Colts have produced 208.9 pass yards per game (187 in the AFC) and have 19 total pass scores.
Defensively, Tennessee has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 103.8 yards and pass for 273.5 yards per game. The Indianapolis defense has allowed 248.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 97.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Titans have given up an ANY/A of 6.09 to opposing QBs, while the Colts are yielding an ANY/A of 6.32.
Offensively, Tannehill is up to 1,239 passing yards this season. He’s completed 98-of-135 attempts with eight scores through the air and four interceptions. Tannehill has a 7.52 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.38 over the last two games.
We expect the Tennessee offense to mix it up in this one. Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannehill have collectively accounted for 595 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Jacoby Brissett has completed 169-of-261 passes for 1,778 yards, 14 TDs and three INTs for Indianapolis. His ANY/A stands at 6.73 for the year and 4.17 across his last two games.
We’re looking for the Colts to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Backfield mates Jonathan Williams (105 rush yards, one rush TD, 17 receiving yards), Marlon Mack (862 rush yards, four rush TDs), and Nyheim Hines (117 rush yards, 228 receiving yards) have been significant focal points in the Colts’ recent offensive gameplans.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick
SU Winner: Titans, ATS Winner: Titans, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- Indianapolis has lost seven fumbles this season while Tennessee has let six get away.
- The Tennessee D has 30 sacks on the year while Indianapolis has 26.
- Tennessee has averaged 7.1 yards per carry across its past three outings and 7.5 over its last two.
- Indianapolis has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.9 over its last two.
- Over its last three contests, Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Tennessee’s last game was set at 42.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-20 victory over Jacksonville.
- In its last three matchups, Tennessee is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Indianapolis’ last match was set at 46.5. The under cashed in the 20-17 defeat to Houston.
- Tennessee has won five of its last six games SU, with a 10-point defeat to Carolina on November 3rd accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
