The Broncos (+2.5) are set to welcome their AFC West nemesis Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) to Denver. This late afternoon matchup will start at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS will showcase the action.
Betting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
In this Sunday AFC game, Los Angeles is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Chargers are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +120. This AFC tilt should provide several decent live betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 38.5 points.
Betting odds have shifted slightly from where they initially opened. The opening line was -2 while the game’s O/U was originally set at 38.
The Chargers are down 5.0 units so far in 2019 and 4-6-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-8.
The Broncos have lost 4.8 units this season. The team is 6-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-7.
The Chargers have gone 4-7 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against AFC West opponents. The Broncos are 3-8 SU overall and 1-2 SU against divisional foes.
Both teams come into the contest on two-game losing streaks. The Bolts lost to Kansas City 24-17 in a Week 11 matchup where the passing attack could’ve been better as Philip Rivers completed just 28 passes on 52 attempts for 353 yards, one score and four interceptions. Melvin Gordon III (69 rushing yards on 14 attempts) mounted the ground attack in the loss while Ekeler (eight receptions, 108 yards) and Keenan Allen (eight catches, 71 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
In Week 12, Buffalo knocked off this Denver team by a score of 20-3. The Broncos defense allowed the Bills to kill the clock by rushing for 244 yards on 47 attempts. Devin Singletary had a good showing in the win for Buffalo, recording 106 rushing yards on 21 attempts. For Denver, Brandon Allen completed 10-of-25 passes for 82 yards and one interception. Phillip Lindsay (57 yards on 13 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat while Noah Fant (three receptions, 14 yards) and Royce Freeman (two catches, nine yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Los Angeles has run the ball on 37.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Denver has a rush percentage of 44.8 percent. The Chargers have produced 86.7 rush yards per game (including 91.3 per game against West opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Broncos are totaling 110.5 rushing yards per game (119 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.
It appears that the Broncos might have an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has produced 4.3 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 4.1 to opponents. The Chargers have recorded 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 YPC to opponents.
The Bolts offensive scheme has averaged 288.7 yards in the air overall (257 per game against conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have produced 215.9 pass yards per game (221 against AFC competition) and have nine total pass scores.
Defensively, Los Angeles has allowed 112.3 rush yards and 219.7 pass yards per game. The Denver defense has allowed 219.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 113.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bolts have given up an ANY/A of 6.41 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos are allowing an ANY/A of 5.94.
Offensively, Rivers has put up 2,962 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 251-of-385 attempts with 13 passing scores and 11 interceptions. Rivers has a 6.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.88 over the past two games.
The Chargers will probably try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Melvin Gordon III (261 rush yards, three rush TDs, 87 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Austin Ekeler (345 rush yards, three rush TDs, 638 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have really been focal points in the Los Angeles offensive scheme.
In the other locker room, Brandon Allen has completed 22-of-45 passes for 275 yards, two TDs and one INT. Allen’s ANY/A stands at an ultra-pedestrian 4.21 for the year and 3.01 across his past two games.
The Broncos will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Courtland Sutton (719 receiving yards, four receiving TDs), Phillip Lindsay (641 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Tim Patrick (three receiving yards) have gotten quite a few looks recently.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Free Prediction
SU Winner: Chargers, ATS Winner: Chargers, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Denver offense has lost five fumbles this season while Los Angeles has let six get away.
- Each team defense has produced 25 sacks this season.
- Los Angeles has rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt across its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
- Denver has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its past two.
- In its last three contests, Denver is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Los Angeles’ last game was set at 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 defeat to Kansas City.
- In its last three matchups, Los Angeles is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Denver’s previous matchup was set at 37. The under cashed in the 20-3 defeat to Buffalo.
- Denver has dropped five of its last six games SU, with a five-point win over Cleveland on November 3rd representing its only victory over that stretch.
