The North Carolina Tar Heels (-8) are set to face off against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ACC Network and kickoff for this ACC matchup is pegged for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina State enters this ACC game as a noticeable underdog and is currently getting 8 points. The Tar Heels are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Wolfpack are +260. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54. With the Wolfpack currently gaining 8 points, oddsmakers are speculating that this could be a 23-31 win for the Tar Heels. If one program can create a bunch of points early, it will probably create a reasonable in-game betting opportunity.
The Tar Heels are 5-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.7 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 6-5.
The underwhelming Wolfpack have lost 6.3 units this season. The team is 3-8 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6.
The Tar Heels have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 3-5 SU against conference opponents. The Wolfpack are 4-7 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
When these two schools faced each other last year, North Carolina State won by a pair of field goals 34-28.
The Heels want to make it two in a row 56-7 victory over Mercer last week. The D did its part in the win, limiting the Bears to just 161 passing yards and 64 rushing yards. David Durden had a productive day for the Bears in that one with 69 yards on seven catches. On the offense, Sam Howell completed 10 passes on 13 attempts for only 152 yards and three touchdowns. Josh Henderson (98 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Antonio Williams (65 yards on nine carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Dyami Brown (three receptions, 83 yards, one TD) and Rontavius Groves (three catches, 24 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
North Carolina State narrowly suffered a 28-26 loss to Georgia Tech. The defensive unit allowed the Yellow Jackets to eat up the clock by running for 266 yards on 43 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jordan Mason put up a good outing for Georgia Tech, accounting for 141 rushing yards on 22 attempts. For North Carolina State, Devin Leary completed 19-of-31 passes for 227 yards and one touchdown. Zonovan Knight (100 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and Jordan Houston (89 yards on 16 carries) handled the running game as Devin Carter (four receptions, 46 yards) and Tabari Hines (four catches, 88 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
North Carolina has run the ball on 55.3 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 52.9 percent across possessions in conference play. North Carolina State has an overall rush percentage of 47.5 percent, and has carried the ball 45.3 percent of the time when playing ACC opponents. The Tar Heels have run for 184.4 yards/game (including 158.5 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pack are averaging 152.9 rushing yards per game (121.7 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Pack should hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has given up only 17 sacks while the D-line has logged 31 sacks. The Tar Heels O-line has given up 34 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just 27 times.
The Heels offense has averaged 270.9 yards through the air overall (281.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 32 passing TDs so far. The Pack have produced 235.6 pass yards per contest (234 in the ACC) and have 13 total pass scores.
Defensively, North Carolina has allowed 150.5 rush yards and 239.5 pass yards per game. The North Carolina State D has allowed 238.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 140.1 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Heels have given up an ANY/A of 6.17 to opposing QBs, while the Pack are yielding an ANY/A of 6.64.
Offensively, Howell has put up 2,624 passing yards this season, and has completed 59 percent of his 312 attempts with 29 scores through the air and only five interceptions. Howell’s got a pristine 8.26 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.52 over the last two outings.
For the home team, Devin Leary has completed 70-of-146 passes for 878 yards, five TDs and two INTs. Leary’s ANY/A sits at 5.61 for the year and 6.16 over his last two outings.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Free Prediction
SU Winner: North Carolina, ATS Winner: North Carolina, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The North Carolina State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 31 times this season. North Carolina has registered 27 sacks.
- The North Carolina State offense has lost 10 fumbles in 2019 while the North Carolina offense has lost four.
- The Tar Heels offense has recorded 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wolfpack have accounted for three such plays.
- The North Carolina defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while North Carolina State has given up 10 such plays.
- The North Carolina offense has created 25 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while North Carolina State has created 14 such runs.
- The Tar Heels defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolfpack have given up 18 such runs.
- The Over/Under for North Carolina State’s last game going into it was 47. The over cashed in that 28-26 loss to Georgia Tech.
- In its last three matches, North Carolina State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three matches, North Carolina is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- North Carolina State has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a six-point win over Syracuse on October 10th representing its only victory over that span.
- The Over/Under for North Carolina’s previous game was set at 64.5. The under cashed in the team’s 56-7 win over Mercer.
- North Carolina has rushed for 6.1 yards per attempt over its last three games and 6.7 over its last two.
- North Carolina State has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.3 over its past two.
