The Lobos (+13) are gearing up to welcome the Utah State Aggies (-13) to New Mexico. This conference game kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET and FCBK is scheduled to broadcast the action. These teams met last year with the final result being a 61-19 win for Utah State.
Betting Preview: Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos
In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, Utah State is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Aggies are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +375. If one side finds paydirt early it will create a nice live betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 61 points.
The Aggies are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.8 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6.
The Lobos have lost 4.0 units this season. The team is 4-7 ATS and also has an O/U record of 5-6.
The Aggies have gone 6-5 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 2-9 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play.
The Aggies are trying to get back on track after a 56-21 defeat to Boise State last week where the Aggies completed 27-of-47 passes for 307 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jordan Love went 21-for-36 for 229 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Henry Colombi completed six-of-11 for 78 yards and one interception. Gerold Bright (44 rushing yards on 10 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Jordan Nathan (seven receptions, 46 yards) and Caleb Repp (five catches, 47 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the defeat.
Back on November 23, Air Force took care of this New Mexico crew by a score of 44-22. The Lobos defensive unit allowed the Falcons to pass for 327 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 213 yards and two scores. Benjamin Waters was outstandingfor the Falcons, recording 171 yards and two touchdowns on four catches. As a group, the Lobos collectively completed eight-of-18 passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti went three-for-11 for 35 yards while Trae Hall was five-of-seven for 55 yards and two touchdowns. Bobby Cole (58 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Salanoa-Tuioti (79 yards on eight carries) spearheaded the running attack while Jordan Kress (three receptions, 24 yards, one TD) and Cedric Patterson III (two catches, 29 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Utah State’s run the ball on 46.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 59 percent. The Aggies have produced 144.9 rush yards per game (including 134.7 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are totaling 198.8 rushing yards per game (194.9 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then the Lobos might be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up just 15 sacks while their D-line has registered 22 sacks. The Aggies O-line has given up 19 sacks and their defense has generated only 18 sacks.
The Aggies offense has tallied 285.4 yards per game through the air overall (256.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Lobos have produced 203 pass yards per contest (178 against MWC competition) and have 11 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Utah State appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 190.6 rush yards and 245.2 pass yards per game. The New Mexico D has allowed 335 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aggies are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have allowed a staggering 10.04 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Love is up to 2,631 yards on the year. He’s connected on 227-of-370 attempts with 12 scores through the air and 13 interceptions. He has a 5.70 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.01 over the last two outings.
Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti has managed to complete 88-of-174 passes for 1,285 yards, seven TDs and six INTs for New Mexico. His ANY/A stands at 6.11 for the season and 5.03 over his past two outings.
Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: Utah State, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The New Mexico D has registered 22 sacks on the year while Utah State has 18.
- The New Mexico offense has lost nine fumbles this season while the Utah State offense has let six get away.
- The Aggies offense has produced eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have accounted for nine such plays.
- The Utah State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New Mexico has given up 24 such plays.
- The Utah State offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New Mexico has created 18 such runs.
- The Aggies defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lobos have given up 16 such runs.
- The O/U for New Mexico’s last outing was set at 57.5. The over cashed in that 44-22 loss to Air Force.
- Over its last three games, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matches, Utah State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- New Mexico has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a three-point win over New Mexico State on September 21st representing the only victory over that span.
- The Over/Under for Utah State’s last game going into it was 54. The over cashed in the team’s 56-21 loss to Boise State.
- Utah State, as a team, has produced 3.2 yards per carry over its past three games and 2.9 over its last two.
- New Mexico has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its past two.
