NCAA Football Free Pick: Texas State Bobcats vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

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The Texas State Bobcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are set to do battle on the turf at Brooks Stadium. ESPN+ owns the TV rights and the game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET. These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to face one another last season.

Betting Preview: Texas State Bobcats at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Coastal Carolina is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently need to put up $300 in order to win $100 back on the Chanticleers (-300). The Bobcats are getting +220 moneyline odds. If one team can catch a lucky break early it would result in a solid in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 53 points.

The opening line was -8. The game’s total has yet to change after being set initially at 53.

The Bobcats are 1-7-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.0 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-6.

The Chanticleers have lost 3.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-5.

The Bobcats are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Chanticleers are 4-7 SU overall and are also 1-6 SU in conference play.

The Bobcats lost to Appalachian State 35-13 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Mountaineers to rush for 280 yards on 49 attempts, including three rush TDs. Darrynton Evans was unmatched for the Mountaineers in that one with 154 rushing yards and all three touchdowns on 21 attempts. Offensively, Tyler Vitt completed only 18 passes on 34 attempts for 154 yards, along with a score and a pick. Javen Banks (five receptions, 82 yards, one TD) and Jeremiah Haydel (five catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

On November 23, Louisiana-Monroe took care of this Coastal Carolina crew by a score of 45-42. The Chanticleers defense allowed the Warhawks to pass for 346 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 217 yards and four scores. Josh Johnson had a good outing in the win, recording 129 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 19 attempts for Louisiana-Monroe. As a group, the Chanticleers collectively completed 14-of-22 passes for 222 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Fred Payton went 10-for-16 for 158 yards and three touchdowns while Bryce Carpenter was four-of-six for 64 yards and one interception. CJ Marable had an outstanding statline in the loss. In addition to 172 rushing yards on 18 attempts (and two TDs), Marable also reeled in four receptions for 27 yards.

Texas State has run the ball on 43.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Coastal Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 59.9 percent. The Bobcats have rushed for 80.4 yards/game (including 100.1 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Chanticleers are averaging 193.5 rush yards per game (163.9 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.

The Bobcats offense has logged 236.4 yards/game in the air overall (216.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Chanticleers have put up 201.5 pass yards per game (196 against SBC competition) and have 19 total pass TDs.

Texas State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 216.2 yards and pass for 203.1 yards per game. The Coastal Carolina D has allowed 217.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 171.6 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bobcats have given up an ANY/A of 7.38 to opposing QBs, while the Chanticleers are yielding an ANY/A of 7.28.

Passing-wise, Vitt has put up 1,042 yards this season, and has connected on 62 percent of his 154 attempts with seven scores through the air and nine interceptions. He has a 4.34 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 2.63 over the past two games.

For the home team, Fred Payton has managed to complete 101-of-155 passes for 1,229 yards, 10 TDs and six INTs. Payton’s ANY/A stands at 6.83 for the season and 8.00 over his past two outings.

Texas State Bobcats at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Coastal Carolina, ATS Winner: Coastal Carolina, O/U: Over

Betting Trends

  • The O/U for Texas State’s previous game going into it was 49.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-13 loss to Appalachian State.
  • Texas State has averaged 2.9 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
  • Coastal Carolina has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.5 over its last two.
  • Coastal Carolina has lost eight fumbles this season while Texas State has lost four.
  • Over its last three games, Texas State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Texas State has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a two-point victory over South Alabama on November 9th representing the only win over that stretch.
  • The Over/Under for Coastal Carolina’s previous outing was set at 63.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-42 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.
  • Over its last three games, Coastal Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Coastal Carolina has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a one-point win over Troy on November 2nd representing its lone victory over that span.
  • The Bobcats offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chanticleers have put up five such plays.
  • The Texas State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40+ yards, while Coastal Carolina has given up four such plays.
  • The Texas State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Coastal Carolina has created 15 such runs.
  • The Bobcats defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chanticleers have given up 13 such runs.
  • The Coastal Carolina D has sacked opposing QBs 18 times this season. Texas State has registered just 11 sacks.