Two schools that like to mix in a lot of running plays, Head Coach Charlie Strong and the South Florida Bulls (+26) are set to face off against their AAC nemesis Ucf Knights at Spectrum Stadium. Kickoff for this showdown is set for 8:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN.
Betting Preview: UCF Knights vs. South Florida Bulls
South Florida is the noticeable underdog here and is currently receiving 26 points from oddsmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 63 points. Multiple decent in-game betting possibilities may be unveiled during this matchup.
The game’s line opened at -25. The total has yet to move after it was set initially at 63.
The Bulls are down 3.5 units so far and 6-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6.
The Knights have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 10.2 units. They’re 4-7 ATS and also have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Bulls have gone an ugly 4-7 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Knights are 8-3 SU overall and 5-2 SU in conference play.
The Bulls are trying to get back on track after a 49-10 loss to Memphis last weekTheir defense allowed the Tigers to eat up the clock by rushing for 325 yards on 58 attempts, including five rush TDs. Kenneth Gainwell logged a good day for the Tigers in that one with 128 rushing yards on 14 attempts. Offensively, Jordan McCloud completed just five-of-14 passes for 45 yards. Kelley Joiner Jr. (115 rushing yards on 13 attempts) led the running attack. Eddie McDoom (two receptions, 40 yards) and Randall St. Felix (two catches, nine yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
UCF just earned a 34-31 win over Tulane. The defense allowed the Green Wave to run for 221 yards on 55 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Justin McMillan had a productive showing in the defeat for Tulane, recording 102 rushing yards on 23 attempts. For UCF, Dillon Gabriel completed 24-of-46 passes for 317 yards and one touchdown. Gabriel (58 rushing yards on 12 attempts) spearheaded the running game as Marlon Williams (nine receptions, 119 yards, one TD) and Gabriel Davis (five catches, 75 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each team has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. South Florida’s run the ball on 56.9 percent of its offensive possessions while UCF has an overall rush percentage of 54.9. The Bulls have produced 163.8 rush yards per game (including 174.6 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Knights are logging 215.2 rush yards per game (204.9 in conference) and have 30 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Knights should hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has produced 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Bulls have rushed for 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 4.4 YPC to opponents.
The Bulls offensive scheme has tallied 174.5 yards/game in the air overall (186.6 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Knights have produced 321.2 pass yards per game (319 against AAC foes) and have 32 total pass scores.
Defensively, South Florida seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 206.5 rush yards and 178.8 pass yards per game. The UCF defense has given up 207.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 145.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bulls have given up an ANY/A of 4.81 to opposing QBs, while the Knights are yielding an ANY/A of 4.72.
Offensively, McCloud has amassed 1,046 passing yards this season. He’s completed 55 percent of his 176 attempts with 11 scores through the air and six interceptions. McCloud’s got a 4.11 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.93 over the last two games.
Dillon Gabriel has completed 176-of-297 passes for 2,833 yards, 24 TDs and five INTs for UCF. His ANY/A sits at 9.67 for the year and 5.79 over his last two outings.
These two schools met last year with the final result being a 38-10 victory for UCF.
South Florida Bulls vs. UCF Knights Betting Pick
SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: South Florida, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The UCF D has produced 29 sacks on the year while South Florida has 28.
- The UCF offense has lost seven fumbles in 2019 while South Florida has let eight get away.
- The Bulls offense has tallied eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Knights have accounted for 19 such plays.
- The South Florida defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while UCF has given up three such plays.
- The South Florida offense has created 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCF has created 27 such runs.
- The Bulls defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Knights have given up 14 such runs.
- The O/U for UCF’s previous game was 74. The under cashed in the 34-31 win over Tulane.
- Over its last three contests, UCF is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three games, South Florida is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- South Florida has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 25-point victory over East Carolina on October 26th representing the only win over that stretch.
- UCF has won five of its last six games SU, with a -3-point loss to Tulsa on November 8th accounting for its only slip-up over that span.
- The O/U for South Florida’s last game was set at 60.5. The under cashed in the team’s 49-10 loss to Memphis.
- South Florida, as a team, has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.8 over its last two.
- UCF has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its last two.
