The Denver Broncos (+5) are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills (-5) at New Era Field. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and the opening kickoff is pegged for 1:00 p.m. ET.
Week 12 Betting Preview: Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Denver is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 5 points in this AFC game. The Broncos are also receiving +160 moneyline odds while the Bills are -180. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 37 points. Some good live betting scenarios could exist during this game.
Sharp bettors are siding with both the Broncos and the over. The line initially opened at -6 and the total was originally set at just 35.
The Broncos are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.8 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 4-6.
The Bills have been a pleasant surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 3.5 units. They’re 6-3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-7.
The Broncos are an ugly 3-7 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Bills are 7-3 SU.
The Broncos lost to Minnesota 27-23 in a Week 11 contest where their secondary allowed the Vikings to air it out for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Stefon Diggs had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 121 yards and a score on five catches. Offensively, Brandon Allen completed just 17 passes on 39 attempts for 240 yards, as well as a score and a pick. Phillip Lindsay (67 yards on 16 rush attempts) led the running attack while Courtland Sutton (five receptions, 113 yards) and Tim Patrick (four catches, 77 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Buffalo is coming off of a 37-20 win over Miami in Week 11. The defensive secondary allowed the Dolphins to air it out for 323 yards. DeVante Parker had a productive showing in the loss for Miami, recording 135 yards on seven catches. For Buffalo, Josh Allen completed 21-of-33 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Devin Singletary (75 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and Frank Gore (27 yards on 11 carries) handled the running game as John Brown (nine receptions, 137 yards, two TDs) and Cole Beasley (four catches, 38 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each squad has a remarkably similar (45-55) run-pass ratio on the season. The Broncos have rushed for 113.1 yards per game and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bills are totaling 128.7 rush yards per game and have 11 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Bills may be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has yielded just 23 sacks while the D-line has registered 29 sacks. The Broncos O-line has given up 32 sacks and their defense has created only 24 sacks.
The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 229.3 yards through the air overall and has nine passing scores so far. The Bills have produced 230.2 pass yards per contest and have 13 total pass TDs.
Denver has let opponents run for an average of 100.5 yards and pass for 223.2 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 216.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 106.3 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.91 to opponents, while the Broncos have allowed a 5.89 ANY/A.
Josh Allen likely has the advantage over Brandon Allen in this matchup. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 5.85 for the year and 7.68 across his past two games while Allen’s ANY/A is 5.05 and 6.59 over the last two games.
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Bills, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Denver’s previous game was set at 40.5. The over cashed in the team’s 27-23 loss to Minnesota.
- Denver has averaged 4.5 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.7 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its past two.
- Buffalo has lost four fumbles this season while Denver has lost five.
- Over its last three contests, Denver is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous outing was set at 41. The over cashed in the 37-20 triumph over Miami.
- Over its last three contests, Buffalo is 2-0-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Broncos offense has produced eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bills have put up five such plays.
- The Denver defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Buffalo has given up three such plays.
- The Denver offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Buffalo has created seven such runs.
- The Broncos defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bills have given up nine such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has tallied 29 sacks on the year while Denver has 24.
