The UCF Knights (-5.5) are heading west to battle their AAC foe Tulane Green Wave at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. CBS Sports Network has the TV rights and the game’s scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: UCF Knights at Tulane Green Wave
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference matchup, UCF is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 5.5 points. The Knights are also receiving -235 moneyline odds while the Green Wave are +185. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 70.5 points. If UCF falls behind in the early stages, it’ll likely generate a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s total was initially set at 69, but the sharp action is pushing that number higher.
The less-than-stellar Knights are down 11.2 units so far in 2019 and 4-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 5-5.
The Green Wave have lost 1.7 units this season. The team is 7-3 ATS and six of its games have gone over the total.
The Knights are 7-3 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Green Wave are 6-4 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.
The Knights fell to Tulsa 34-31 in a game where their defense allowed the Golden Hurricane to eat up the clock by rushing for 139 yards on 55 attempts, including two rush TDs. Offensively, Dillon Gabriel completed 23-of-38 passes for 290 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Otis Anderson (66 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Adrian Killins Jr. (95 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Gabriel Davis (six receptions, 98 yards) and Tre Nixon (five catches, 78 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
A week ago, Temple got the win against this Tulane crew by a score of 29-21. Justin McMillan completed 11-of-27 passes for 103 yards and one interception. Darius Bradwell (63 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller McMillan (64 yards on 17 carries) spearheaded the running attack while Tyrick James (four receptions, 34 yards) and Darnell Mooney (three catches, 38 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
UCF’s run the ball on 55.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tulane has a rush percentage of 64.2 percent. The Knights have run for 220.2 yards per game (including 211.5 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 28 scores on the ground this year. The Green Wave are totaling 255.4 rushing yards per game (243.7 in conference) and have 29 total rush TDs.
The Knights offense has averaged 321.4 yards in the air overall (318.5 per game against conference opposition) and has 30 passing scores so far. The Green Wave have put up 204.1 pass yards per outing (217 in the AAC) and have 15 total pass TDs.
UCF has let opponents rush for an average of 138.4 yards and throw for 210.2 yards per game. The Tulane defense has allowed 209.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.2 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.67 to opponents, while the Green Wave have given up a 6.13 ANY/A.
Offensively, Gabriel has amassed 2,508 passing yards this year. He’s completed 154-of-259 attempts with 21 passing scores and seven interceptions. Gabriel’s got an 8.94 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 7.32 over the past two outings.
Tre Nixon (582 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns this season), Otis Anderson (579 rush yards, four rush TDs, 142 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Gabriel Davis (1,014 receiving yards, 10 TDs) have all played big roles lately.
On the other sideline, Justin McMillan has connected on 123-of-216 passes for 1,622 yards, 12 TDs and eight INTs. McMillan’s ANY/A sits at 5.97 for the year and 3.30 over his last two outings.
We expect the Green Wave to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Justin McMillan (27 receiving yards this season), Stephon Huderson (161 rush yards, one rush TD, 38 receiving yards) and Darius Bradwell (388 rush yards, two rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Green Wave’s recent offensive gameplans.
These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.
UCF Knights vs. Tulane Green Wave Free Prediction
SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: UCF, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Tulane offense has lost six fumbles this season while UCF has let seven get away.
- The UCF D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times this year. Tulane has recorded just 15 sacks.
- UCF has produced 5.9 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.5 over its last two.
- Tulane has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its last two.
