The Michigan State Spartans (+20.5) are set to pay a visit to their Big 10 counterpart Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. The afternoon game is scheduled to start at 12:00 p.m. ET and FS1 will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Michigan State is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 20.5 points to Rutgers. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 43 points, and if one team finds paydirt in the early stages, it’ll likely generate a nice live betting opportunity.
Early action has been shifting toward the under, as the game’s over/under was initially placed at 45.
The underwhelming Spartans are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 20.4 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 5-5.
The Scarlet Knights have lost 0.5 units this season. The team is 3-7 ATS and owns an O/U record of 5-4-1.
The Spartans have gone 4-6 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Scarlet Knights are 2-8 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play.
The Spartans are most-recently on the rebound after a 44-10 loss to Michigan last week where Brian Lewerke completed just 17-of-30 passes for 166 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Cody White (six receptions, 78 yards) and Julian Barnett (three catches, 29 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
A week ago, Ohio State knocked off this Rutgers team by a score of 56-21. Johnny Langan completed 12-of-26 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Isaih Pacheco (56 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) handled the running attack while Aaron Young (three receptions, 2 yards) and Bo Melton (three catches, 57 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Michigan State has run the ball on 49.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Rutgers has a rush percentage of 62.6 percent. The Spartans have produced 123.2 rush yards/game (including 108.6 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 133.8 rushing yards per game (112.1 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.
Based on the numbers this season, it seems like the Spartans might own an advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game, as their backfield has logged 3.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.1 to opponents. The Scarlet Knights have registered 3.5 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.0 to opponents.
The Spartans offensive scheme has logged 228.1 yards/game in the air overall (209.1 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Scarlet Knights have recorded 141.6 pass yards per outing (82 against Big 10 competition) and have seven total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 105.6 rush yards and 231.8 pass yards per game. The Rutgers defense has allowed 247 yards per game to opposing passers and 200.8 yards per game on the ground. The Spartans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.98 to opposing QBs, while the Scarlet Knights have given up a staggering 8.52 ANY/A.
Offensively, Lewerke is up to 1,927 passing yards this year, and has connected on 56 percent of his 292 attempts with 12 scores through the air and six interceptions. He has a 5.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.04 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced approach offensively from Michigan State in this one. Elijah Collins, Cody White and Brian Lewerke have combined to account for 534 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Johnny Langan has completed 55-of-105 passes for 533 yards, three TDs and seven INTs for Rutgers. His ANY/A stands at a very poor 1.64 for the season and 2.40 across his past two outings.
We’re thinking the Scarlet Knights will control the game’s pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with QB Johnny Langan (zero receiving yards this season), Kay’Ron Adams (116 rush yards, one rush TD, 41 receiving yards) and Aaron Young (73 rush yards) have been significant focal points in the Scarlet Knights’ recent offensive strategies.
These two schools faced off last year with the final outcome being a 14-10 win for Michigan State.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Free Pick
SU Winner: Rutgers, ATS Winner: Rutgers, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Spartans offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Scarlet Knights have accounted for six such plays.
- The Michigan State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Rutgers has given up 12 such plays.
- The Michigan State offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Rutgers has created 10 such runs.
- The Spartans defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Scarlet Knights have given up 15 such runs.
- The Michigan State D has 29 sacks on the year while Rutgers has just 12.
- As a team, Michigan State has produced 3.7 yards per carry across its past three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
- Rutgers has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.2 over its past two.
- In its last three games, Rutgers is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Michigan State’s previous game going into it was 44. The over cashed in the team’s 44-10 loss to Michigan.
- Over its last three matchups, Michigan State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Rutgers’ previous matchup was 63. The over cashed in the 56-21 loss to Ohio State.
- Rutgers has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 10-point victory over Liberty on October 26th representing the lone win over that stretch.
