A couple of schools that like to run the football, Tigers of Missouri (-4) are gearing up to welcome their SEC foe Tennessee Volunteers to Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field. SEC Network has the TV rights and the game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Missouri Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers
In this Saturday Southeastern game, Missouri is getting picked as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 4 points. The Volunteers are also receiving +165 moneyline odds while the Tigers are -185. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points, and if one school can catch a lucky break in the early stages, it will likely result in a solid betting opportunity in-game.
The Volunteers are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.7 units this season. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-6.
The Tigers have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors so far, losing 12.2 units. The team is 4-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-8.
The Volunteers have gone 5-5 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against conference opponents. The Tigers are 5-5 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.
Missouri enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while Tennessee has lost zero straight. The Volunteers are coming off a 17-13 win over Kentucky on November 9. the Volunteers completed 14-of-25 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns. Brian Maurer went seven-for-16 for 98 yards while Jarrett Guarantano completed seven-of-eight for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Ty Chandler (28 yards on seven rushes) provided the ground attack in the win while Marquez Callaway (four receptions, 103 yards, one TD) and Josh Palmer (four catches, 55 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Missouri most-recently lost a 23-6 game to Florida. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Gators to air it out for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Van Jefferson had a good outing, posting 82 yards on six catches for Florida. For Missouri, Kelly Bryant completed 25-of-39 passes for 204 yards and one interception. Bryant (19 rushing yards on 15 attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Tyler Badie (five receptions, 20 yards) and Jonathan Nance (four catches, 58 yards) led the Missouri pass-catchers.
Tennessee has run the ball on 56.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Missouri has an overall rush percentage of 54.7 percent. The Volunteers have rushed for 133 yards per game (including 113.2 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have seven touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Tigers are totaling 157.7 rushing yards per game (134.5 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Tigers ought to hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Volunteers have tallied 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 3.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Vols offense has tallied 210.5 yards/contest through the air overall (212 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Tigers have put up 230.5 pass yards per outing (202 against SEC competition) and have 14 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee has allowed 154.1 rush yards and 194.5 pass yards per game. The Missouri defense has given up 165.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 131.7 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Vols have given up an ANY/A of 4.61 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are yielding an ANY/A of 4.77.
Offensively, Guarantano has amassed 1,255 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 92-of-148 attempts with 12 passing scores and four interceptions. Guarantano has a pristine 7.84 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.03 over the last two outings.
Ty Chandler (512 rushing yards, two rush TDs this season), Jauan Jennings (701 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and Marquez Callaway (477 receiving yards, five TDs) have all played big roles lately.
On the other sideline, Kelly Bryant has completed 165-of-264 passes for 2,049 yards, 14 TDs and six INTs. Bryant’s ANY/A sits at 6.87 for the season and 3.31 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Tigers will control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to Jonathan Nance (365 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), Larry Rountree III (674 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Tyler Badie (344 rush yards, two rush TDs, 317 receiving yards, three TDs) have really been focal points in the Missouri offense.
When these two squads faced one another last year, Missouri knocked off Tennessee soundly 50-17.
Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers Free Prediction
SU Winner: Missouri, ATS Winner: Missouri, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- Both teams have lost six fumbles this season.
- The Tennessee defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times this year. Missouri has recorded just 18 sacks.
- As a team, Tennessee has averaged 3.4 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 3.4 over its last two.
- Missouri has averaged 2.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 1.9 over its past two.
- Over its last three matches, Missouri is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Tennessee’s last game was 42. The under cashed in the team’s 17-13 triumph over Kentucky.
- In its last three games, Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Missouri’s previous matchup going into it was 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 23-6 loss to Florida.
