The Georgia Southern Eagles (+1) will meet their conference rival Arkansas State Red Wolves at Centennial Bank Stadium. The crucial afternoon game starts at 3:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ is scheduled to televise the action.
Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Arkansas State has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 1 point. The Eagles are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Red Wolves are -105. This SBC tilt should provide several decent in-game betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.
The under has received the bulk of the early sharp action, as this game’s over/under initially opened at 59.5.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Eagles have gained 5.3 units and the Red Wolves are up 1.4 units.
The Eagles have gone 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Red Wolves are 6-4 SU overall and are also 4-2 SU in conference play.
The Eagles are coming off a resounding 51-29 win over Louisiana-Monroe last week where Shai Werts completed just five-of-10 passes for 80 yards and one touchdown. Wesley Kennedy III (76 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) and J.D. King (102 yards on 16 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Kennedy III (two receptions, 21 yards) and Darion Anderson (one catch, 33 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Arkansas State enters this one after just earning a 28-27 win over Coastal Carolina. The defense allowed the Chanticleers to rush for 233 yards on 58 attempts, including two rush TDs. CJ Marable was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 142 rushing yards and a score on 28 attempts for Coastal Carolina. For Arkansas State, Layne Hatcher completed 24-of-35 passes for 305 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Marcel Murray (59 rushing yards on 12 attempts) mounted the running game while Omar Bayless (seven receptions, 102 yards, one TD) and Kirk Merritt (seven catches, 70 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Georgia Southern’s run the ball on 84 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas State has a rush percentage of 49.5 percent. The Eagles have produced 255.1 rush yards/game (including 259.3 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 22 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Red Wolves are totaling 133.6 rush yards per game (145.3 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
Based on the numbers so far, it seems like the Eagles should have an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has produced 4.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Red Wolves have ran for 3.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.1 to opponents.
The Eagles offense has averaged 61.8 yards through the air overall (75.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Red Wolves have put up 297.6 pass yards per outing (306 in the SBC) and have 27 total pass scores.
Georgia Southern appears to hold an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 144.6 yards and pass for 234.6 yards per game. The Arkansas State defense has given up 264.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 215.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Red Wolves are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.28 to opposing QBs, while the Eagles have allowed a 7.20 ANY/A.
Offensively, Werts has put up 275 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 48 percent of his 58 attempts with three scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 4.55 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.34 over the past two outings.
We’re looking for Eagles to maintain the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Wesley Kennedy III (533 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and J.D. King (628 rush yards, five rush TDs) have been significant focal points in the Georgia Southern offensive scheme.
In the home locker room, Layne Hatcher has managed to complete 114-of-169 passes for 1,558 yards, 15 TDs and eight INTs. Hatcher’s ANY/A stands at 7.63 for the season and 8.04 over his last two games.
The Red Wolves also like to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Marcel Murray (49 receiving yards), Omar Bayless (1,172 receiving yards and 13 receiving TDs) and Kirk Merritt (nine rush yards, 534 receiving yards, nine TDs) have seen a lot of looks recently.
When these two programs faced each other last year, Georgia Southern knocked off Arkansas State by a touchdown 28-21.
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Free Prediction
SU Winner: Arkansas State, ATS Winner: Arkansas State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Eagles offense has recorded one pass play of 40+ yards, while the Red Wolves have accounted for 14 such plays.
- The Georgia Southern defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Arkansas State has given up eight such plays.
- The Georgia Southern offense has created 26 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Arkansas State has created 10 such runs.
- The Eagles defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Red Wolves have given up 16 such runs.
- The Arkansas State D has created 19 sacks on the year while Georgia Southern has 14.
- As a team, Georgia Southern has rushed for 4.7 yards per attempt across its past three outings and 3.9 over its last two.
- Arkansas State has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
- Over its last three contests, Arkansas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Georgia Southern’s last game was set at 57.5. The over cashed in the team’s 51-29 victory over Louisiana-Monroe.
- In its last three contests, Georgia Southern is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Arkansas State’s previous matchup going into it was 60.5. The under cashed in the 28-27 victory over Coastal Carolina.
- Georgia Southern has won six of its last seven games SU, with a 21-point loss to Troy on November 9th accounting for the only defeat over that span.
