A couple of schools that prefer to keep it on the ground, Head Coach Jason Candle and the Toledo Rockets (+8) are gearing up to take on their conference nemesis Buffalo Bulls (-8) at UB Stadium. Kickoff for this criticalshowdown is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and interested parties can view the action live on ESPN2.
Betting Preview: Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rockets
In this Wednesday Mid-American matchup, Buffalo is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Rockets are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Bulls are -330. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points, and if one school can find paydirt early, it will likely generate a solid betting opportunity in-game.
The betting odds have shifted slightly from where they were initially posted. The opening line was -7 and the game’s total was placed originally at 54.
The Rockets have gained 2.0 units so far and are 4-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 6-4.
The Bulls are up 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-5 ATS and also own an O/U record of 6-4.
The Rockets are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against MAC opponents. The Bulls are 5-5 SU overall and 3-3 SU in conference play.
The Rockets dropped one to Northern Illinois 31-28 in a nailbiter where their defense allowed the Huskies to rush for 222 yards on 44 attempts, including three rush TDs. Tre Harbison torched the defense in that one with 158 rushing yards and a score on 32 attempts, along with 43 yards on one catch. Offensively, Eli Peters completed 26-of-38 passes for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Shakif Seymour (133 yards on 19 rush attempts) and Ronnie Jones (45 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Danzel McKinley-Lewis (seven receptions, 78 yards) and Bryce Mitchell (six catches, 125 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties.
Buffalo just fell 30-27 to Kent State. The defensive unit let the Golden Flashes rush for 119 yards on 40 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Xavier Williams put up a solid outing in the win, recording 42 rushing yards and a score on nine attempts, along with 56 yards on two catches for Kent State. For Buffalo, Kyle Vantrease completed nine-of-22 passes for 134 yards and one touchdown. Jaret Patterson (141 rushing yards on 30 attempts) and Kevin Marks (53 yards on 15 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Daniel Lee (four receptions, 58 yards, one TD) and Zac Lefebvre (two catches, 43 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Toledo has run the ball on 62.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 69.3 percent. The Rockets have run for 245.7 yards/game (including 234.7 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 23 scores via handoffs this year. The Bulls are logging 226.5 rush yards per game (228.8 in conference) and have 20 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Bulls ought to own the edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded only eight sacks while their D-line has registered 34 sacks. The Rockets offensive line has allowed 21 sacks and their defense has recorded only 15 sacks.
The Rockets offensive scheme has averaged 209.4 yards in the air overall (210.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Bulls have put up 141.5 pass yards per game (145 in the MAC) and have 12 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Toledo has allowed opponents to run for an average of 199.1 yards and pass for 266.2 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 204.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 88.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.77 to opponents, while the Rockets have given up a 7.29 ANY/A.
Offensively, Peters has put up 471 passing yards this year, and has connected on 37-of-63 attempts with five scores through the air and only one interception. He has a 7.65 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.
Shakif Seymour, Bryce Mitchell and Danzel McKinley-Lewis have combined to account for 610 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Kyle Vantrease has connected on 55-of-98 passes for 605 yards, five TDs and one INT. Vantrease’s ANY/A sits at 6.61 for the year and 8.13 over his past two games.
We’re looking for the Bulls to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Daniel Lee (129 receiving yards, one TD this season) has chipped in lately, but Jaret Patterson (976 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Kevin Marks (693 rush yards, five rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Bulls’ recent offensive strategies.
When these two teams faced one another last year, Buffalo won by two touchdowns 31-17.
Toledo Rockets at Buffalo Bulls NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Toledo, ATS Winner: Toledo, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Rockets offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulls have accounted for six such plays.
- The Toledo defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Buffalo has given up eight such plays.
- The Toledo offense has created 23 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Buffalo has created 13 such runs.
- The Rockets defense has allowed 23 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulls have given up eight such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has notched 34 sacks on the year while Toledo has just 15.
- As a team, Toledo has averaged 5.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
- In its last three matches, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Toledo’s last game was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 31-28 loss to Northern Illinois.
- Over its last three matchups, Toledo is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Buffalo’s last matchup was set at 54.5. The over cashed in the 30-27 defeat to Kent State.
