The No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5) aren’t traveling far to take on their Big 12 rival Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium. The afternoon matchup is scheduled to get going at 12:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action live on ESPN2.
Betting Preview: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. TCU Horned Frogs
In this Saturday Big 12 game, TCU is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Horned Frogs are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Red Raiders are +120. There might be multiple good live betting opportunities in this match, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points.
This game’s line opened at -2. The total has yet to change after being initially set at 56.5.
The underwhelming Horned Frogs are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 5.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-3.
The Red Raiders are down 2.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-4.
The Horned Frogs have gone 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against conference opponents. The Red Raiders are 4-5 SU overall and are also 2-4 SU in conference play.
The Horned Frogs lost to Baylor 29-23 in a contest where their D allowed the Bears to throw for 195 yards and rush for 99 yards. Denzel Mims had a productive day for the Bears in that one with 57 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. On the offense, Max Duggan completed only 14-of-32 passes for 140 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Sewo Olonilua (79 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Duggan (46 yards on 14 carries) led the ground attack in the loss. Pro Wells (four receptions, 58 yards) and Olonilua (four catches, 30 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Texas Tech is coming off of a 38-17 win over West Virginia. The defensive secondary allowed the Mountaineers to air it out for 498 yards and two touchdowns. Sam James had a productive outing in the loss, recording 223 yards on 14 catches for West Virginia. For Texas Tech, Jett Duffey completed 24-of-34 passes for 354 yards and one touchdown. Ta’Zhawn Henry (67 rushing yards on 22 attempts, two TDs) and SaRodorick Thompson (27 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) handled the ground game in the win as Erik Ezukanma (five receptions, 70 yards) and Henry (four catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
TCU’s run the ball on 57.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas Tech has an overall rush percentage of 45.9 percent. The Horned Frogs have produced 214.4 rush yards per game (including 191.3 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 19 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Red Raiders are logging 167.9 rush yards per game (168.2 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.
Based on the results so far, it appears that the Horned Frogs may own an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Red Raiders have tallied 4.6 yards per carry and given up 4.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Horned Frogs offensive scheme has tallied 212.4 yards per game in the air overall (227.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Red Raiders have produced 310.7 pass yards per outing (295 against Big 12 competition) and have 16 total pass TDs.
TCU should hold an advantage in both defensive facets. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 125.1 yards and pass for 195.6 yards per game. The Texas Tech defense has given up 308.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.00 to opponents, while the Red Raiders have given up a 7.33 ANY/A.
Duffey has been sharper than Duggan recently. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.44 for the year and 10.37 across his last two games while Duggan’s ANY/A is 5.85 and 1.62 over his last two.
When these two schools met a year ago, Texas Tech won by a field goal 17-14.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Bedding Prediction
SU Winner: TCU, ATS Winner: TCU, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Texas Tech defense has produced 19 sacks on the year while TCU has 18.
- The Texas Tech offense has lost four fumbles this season while TCU has lost nine.
- The Horned Frogs offense has produced five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Red Raiders have put up seven such plays.
- The TCU defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while Texas Tech has given up 18 such plays.
- The TCU offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Texas Tech has created 10 such runs.
- The Horned Frogs defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Red Raiders have given up 16 such runs.
- The O/U for Texas Tech’s last game going into it was 57. The under cashed in that 38-17 win over West Virginia.
- Over its last three matchups, Texas Tech is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three contests, TCU is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- TCU has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 10-point victory over Texas on October 26th representing the only win over that span.
- The Over/Under for TCU’s previous game was set at 48. The over cashed in the team’s 29-23 loss to Baylor.
- TCU has averaged 3.8 yards per carry across its last three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
- Texas Tech has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.9 over its past two.
