NCAA Football Free Pick: Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina State Wolfpack

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The Wolfpack (+3.5) are gearing up to welcome their conference foe Louisville Cardinals (-3.5) to North Carolina State. ACC Network will broadcast the action and the game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina State Wolfpack

In this Saturday Atlantic Coast game, Louisville is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Cardinals are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Wolfpack are +155. There could be some good live betting possibilities while this game’s taking place, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points.

The Cardinals have recorded 2.9 units so far and are 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 4-5.

The Wolfpack have lost 3.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-6.

The Cardinals are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 3-3 SU against ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 4-5 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.

The Cards look to get back in stride after a 52-27 loss to Miami (FL) last week. the Cardinals completed 18-of-29 passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Malik Cunningham went 12-for-18 for 219 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Evan Conley completed six-of-11 for 109 yards and one interception. Javian Hawkins (91 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and the signal-caller Cunningham (-8 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the running attack. Chatarius Atwell (six receptions, 142 yards, one TD) and Keion Wakefield (three catches, 40 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

North Carolina State just suffered a brutal 55-10 defeat to Clemson. Devin Leary completed 14-of-29 passes for 166 yards. Zonovan Knight (139 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack as Emeka Emezie (four receptions, 21 yards) and Tabari Hines (three catches, 30 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Louisville has run the ball on 64.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while North Carolina State has an overall rush percentage of 46.4 percent. The Cardinals have rushed for 212.6 yards per game (including 189.3 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pack are putting up 146.4 rushing yards per game (97.6 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Pack could have the advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded just 15 sacks while the D-line has registered 28 sacks. The Cardinals O-line has allowed 27 sacks and their defense has created only 19 sacks.

The Cards offense has averaged 237.8 yards through the air overall (262.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Pack have produced 235.8 pass yards per outing (233 in the ACC) and have 10 total pass scores.

Defensively, Louisville has allowed 180 rush yards and 258.6 pass yards per game. The North Carolina State defense has given up 249.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 133.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Pack are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.94 to opposing QBs, while the Cardinals have given up a 7.45 ANY/A.

Cunningham probably has the advantage over Leary in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.90for the year and 9.53 over his last two outings. Leary’s ANY/A is 7.23 for the season and 2.82 over his last two games.

When these two programs met a year ago, North Carolina State knocked off Louisville by six touchdowns 52-10.

Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Pick

SU Winner: North Carolina State, ATS Winner: North Carolina State, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Louisville’s previous game going into it was 50. The over cashed in the team’s 52-27 defeat to Miami (FL).
  • Louisville, as a team, has averaged 4.5 yards per carry across its past three outings and 4.9 over its last two.
  • North Carolina State has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.2 over its last two.
  • North Carolina State has lost seven fumbles this season while Louisville has let eight get away.
  • In its last three games, Louisville is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for North Carolina State’s last matchup was 54.5. The over cashed in the team’s 55-10 defeat to Clemson.
  • Over its last three matchups, North Carolina State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • North Carolina State has dropped five of its last six games SU, with a six-point victory over Syracuse on October 10th representing the only win over that stretch.
  • The Cardinals offense has recorded 13 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Wolfpack have put up three such plays.
  • The Louisville defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while North Carolina State has given up six such plays.
  • The Louisville offense has created 22 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while North Carolina State has created 13 such runs.
  • The Cardinals defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolfpack have given up 13 such runs.
  • The North Carolina State defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 28 times this season. Louisville has produced just 19 sacks.