The Michigan State Spartans (+14) are set to pay a visit to the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (-14) at Michigan Stadium. This conference showdown starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and FOX is in line to broadcast the action. When these two teams met a year ago, Michigan won by a couple of touchdowns 21-7.
Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Michigan has been projected as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. The Spartans are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Wolverines are -735. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 44 points, and if one squad can catch a lucky break early, it would likely generate a worthy live betting scenario.
This game’s opening line was -15. The O/U hasn’t moved after it was initially set at 44.
The hapless Spartans are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) and are down 19.4 units so far in 2019. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-5.
The Wolverines have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and own an O/U record of 6-3.
The Spartans are 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-4 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Wolverines are 7-2 SU overall and 4-2 SU in conference play.
Michigan enters this matchup on a four-game losing streak while Michigan State has come out on top in its last two in a row. The Spartans fell to Illinois 37-34 in a matchup where the passing game could’ve been sharper as Brian Lewerke completed just 19-of-36 passes for 251 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Elijah Collins (170 yards on 28 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Lewerke (96 yards on 11 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack. Cody White (seven receptions, 128 yards) and Tre Mosley (three catches, 32 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Michigan just earned a lopsided 38-7 win over Maryland two weeks ago. The defense allowed the Terrapins to run for 129 yards on 46 rush attempts. Anthony McFarland Jr. was a bright spot in the defeat for Maryland, posting 60 rushing yards on 14 attempts. As a group, the Wolverines collectively completed 16-of-29 passes for 176 yards and one touchdown. Shea Patterson went 13-for-22 for 151 yards and one touchdown while Dylan McCaffrey was three-of-seven for 25 yards. Hassan Haskins really turned heads in the win. Along with 60 rushing yards on 13 attempts (and one TD), Haskins also reeled in three catches for 9 yards.
Michigan State’s run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan has a rush percentage of 57.8 percent. The Spartans have produced 130.9 rush yards per game (including 117.7 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wolverines are putting up 170.7 rush yards per game (148.7 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Wolverines may have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.2 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 2.9 to opponents. The Spartans have recorded 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 3.1 YPC to opponents.
The Spartans offense has logged 235 yards/game in the air overall (216.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Wolverines have produced 219.2 pass yards per outing (231 in the Big 10) and have 14 total pass scores.
Michigan State has let opponents run for an average of 108.1 yards and throw for 214.9 yards per game. The Michigan D has allowed 153.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 112.7 yards per game on the ground. The Wolverines are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.11 to opposing QBs, while the Spartans have allowed a 5.35 ANY/A.
Patterson has completed 129-of-224 passes for 1,673 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Patterson’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.80 for the season and 8.08 over his last two outings. In the other locker room, Lewerke has put up 1,847 passing yards this season. He’s completed 150-of-264 attempts with 12 passing touchdowns and six interceptions. Lewerke’s got a 6.43 ANY/A for the year, though that number sits at 3.36 over the past two outings.
Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines Bedding Prediction
SU Winner: Michigan, ATS Winner: Michigan, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The O/U for Michigan State’s last game was 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 37-34 defeat to Illinois.
- Michigan State has rushed for 3.8 yards per attempt across its past three games and 4.4 over its last two.
- Michigan has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
- The Michigan offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Michigan State has lost eight.
- Over its last three games, Michigan State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Michigan’s last match was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 38-7 triumph over Maryland.
- In its last three matches, Michigan is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Michigan has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -7-point defeat to Penn State on October 19th accounting for the lone loss over that span.
- The Spartans offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wolverines have put up five such plays.
- The Michigan State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Michigan has given up two such plays.
- Both defenses have produced 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Michigan State offense has recorded 33 running plays of 10+ yards while Michigan has accounted for 46 such plays.
- The Spartans defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Wolverines have given up six such runs.
- The Michigan D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 28 times this season. Michigan State has registered 25 sacks.
