A couple of offenses with noticeably different run-pass ratios, the Chiefs (-2) are gearing up to host the Minnesota Vikings in Kansas City. This vital early afternoon matchup gets going at 1:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action on FOX.
Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota is a live dog here and is currently getting 2 points. The Vikings are also receiving +110 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -130. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 48 points. There should be multiple solid live betting opportunities for this game.
This game’s line opened at -3. The total has not changed after being set initially at 48.
The Vikings are 5-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.9 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-5.
The Chiefs have lost 2.6 units this season. The team is 4-4 ATS and the over’s hit in five of its games.
The Vikings have gone 6-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Chiefs are 5-3 SU.
The Vikings just got a 19-9 victory over Washington last week. Kirk Cousins completed 23-of-26 passes for 285 yards. Dalvin Cook (98 yards on 23 rush attempts, one TD) and Alexander Mattison (61 yards on 13 carries) led the ground attack while Stefon Diggs (seven receptions, 143 yards) and Cook (five catches, 73 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
In Week 8, Green Bay knocked off this Kansas City crew by a score of 31-24. The Chiefs defensive unit allowed the Packers to pass for 305 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 118 yards. Aaron Jones was a force to be reckoned with, recording 67 rushing yards on 13 attempts, along with 159 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches for Green Bay. For Kansas City, Matt Moore completed 24-of-36 passes for 267 yards and two touchdowns. LeSean McCoy (40 rushing yards on nine attempts) handled the running game as Tyreek Hill (six receptions, 76 yards) and Sammy Watkins (five catches, 45 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Minnesota’s run the ball on 55 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas City has an overall rush percentage of 36.4 percent. The Vikings have produced 160.1 rush yards/game and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Chiefs are averaging 83 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Vikings should hold an edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their running backs has produced 4.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Chiefs have tallied 3.9 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.9 to opponents.
The Vikes offense has logged 249.6 yards per contest in the air overall and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have produced 320.5 pass yards per outing and have 18 total pass scores.
Defensively, Minnesota has allowed opponents to run for an average of 89.4 yards and pass for 246.8 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 256.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 145.0 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Vikes have given up an ANY/A of 5.45 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs are allowing an ANY/A of 5.81.
Cousins has been more productive than Moore lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.15for the season and 10.97 over his last two outings. Moore’s ANY/A is 7.41 for the season and 7.31 over his last two outings.
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- Minnesota, as a team, has rushed for 4.1 yards per attempt over its past three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
- Kansas City has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three games and only 3.6 over its last two.
- Both teams have lost seven fumbles this season.
- The Vikings offense has registered four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Chiefs have accounted for 11 such plays.
- The Minnesota defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up four such plays.
- The Minnesota offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created six such runs.
- The Vikings defense has allowed one rushing play of 20+ yards, while the Chiefs have given up four such runs.
- The Kansas City defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times this year. Minnesota has recorded 23 sacks.
