The San Diego State Aztecs (-13.5) are traveling east to visit their in-conference rival UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. This showdown will kick off fairly late for those on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: San Diego State Aztecs at UNLV Rebels
In this Saturday Mountain West game, San Diego State is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 13.5 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to lay down $600 to net $100 back on the Aztecs (-600). The Rebels are getting +425 moneyline odds. If one squad can get out in front early it’ll produce a worthwhile in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.
The total has yet to move after being set initially at 48. Having said that, the line opened at 11 and sharp bettors have been siding with the Aztecs.
Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Aztecs have gained 6.5 units while the Rebels are ahead 2.2 units.
The Aztecs are 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Rebels are 2-5 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Aztecs just pulled off a 27-17 win over San Jose State last week. Ryan Agnew completed 13-of-20 passes for only 88 yards. Juwan Washington (78 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Agnew (44 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack. Kobe Smith (four receptions, 29 yards) and Jesse Matthews (three catches, 22 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
UNLV just suffered a brutal 56-27 defeat to Fresno State. Kenyon Oblad completed 16-of-34 passes for 257 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. Charles Williams (82 rushing yards on 25 attempts) and Chad Magyar (44 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game while Randal Grimes (four receptions, 45 yards, two TDs) and Darren Woods Jr. (three catches, 41 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
San Diego State has run the ball on 61.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UNLV has an overall rush percentage of 55 percent. The Aztecs have produced 150.4 rush yards per game (including 140.5 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Rebels are averaging 176.9 rush yards per game (101 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Aztecs might have the more disruptive lines up front, since their offensive line has given up just 33 sacks while the D-line logged 25 sacks. The Rebels O-line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 21 times.
The Aztecs offensive scheme has logged 177.4 yards/contest in the air overall (181.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Rebels have produced 198.4 pass yards per outing (261 in the MWC) and have 10 total pass scores.
Defensively, San Diego State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 62.6 yards and pass for 207.7 yards per game. The UNLV defense has allowed 223.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 216.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.45 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have given up a 7.36 ANY/A.
Oblad has completed 66-of-134 passes for 824 yards, six TDs and six INTs for UNLV. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 4.43 for the year and 7.88 across his past two games. In the other locker room, Agnew is up to 1,033 passing yards this season, and has completed 105-of-164 attempts with seven passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Agnew has a 5.47 ANY/A, including 6.07 over the last two outings.
When these two teams faced each other a year ago, UNLV won by a field goal 27-24.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. UNLV Rebels NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: UNLV, ATS Winner: UNLV, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The San Diego State defense has twice as many sacks as UNLV this year (16 to eight).
- UNLV has lost six fumbles this season while the San Diego State offense has lost one.
- The Aztecs offense has created two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Rebels have accounted for six such plays.
- The San Diego State defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while UNLV has given up eight such plays.
- The San Diego State offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UNLV has created 10 such runs.
- The Aztecs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Rebels have given up 15 such runs.
- The O/U for UNLV’s previous match going into it was 52. The over cashed in the 56-27 defeat to Fresno State.
- Over its last three matches, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three contests, San Diego State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for San Diego State’s last game going into it was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 27-17 victory over San Jose State.
- San Diego State has produced 3.5 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.2 over its last two.
- UNLV has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.9 over its past two.
