A couple of schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Eli Drinkwitz and the No. 21 Appalachian State Mountaineers (+24.5) are gearing up to face off against their conference foe South Alabama Jaguars at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. ESPNU has the TV rights and the afternoon game is scheduled to start at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: South Alabama Jaguars vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 24.5 points to South Alabama. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 52.5 points. If one program finds paydirt early on, it’ll probably result in a reasonable betting opportunity in-game.
Odds have moved from where they were originally placed, as the line opened at 25.5. The game’s total hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 52.5.
The surprising Mountaineers have gained 4.4 units this season and are 5-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-3.
The Jaguars are down 4.0 units in 2019. The team is 3-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-6.
The Mountaineers are 6-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 1-6 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Mountaineers are looking to stay unbeaten following a 52-7 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week where Zac Thomas completed 18-of-30 passes for 214 yards, three scores and one interception. Darrynton Evans (136 yards on 17 rushes, one TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (79 yards on 16 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Corey Sutton (five receptions, 75 yards) and Evans (three catches, 41 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
One week ago, Troy knocked off this South Alabama team by a score of 37-13. The Jags defensive unit allowed the Trojans to kill the clock by running for 220 yards on 51 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. DK Billingsley had a solid outing in the win, recording 100 rushing yards on 20 attempts for Troy. For South Alabama, Cephus Johnson completed 20-of-38 passes for 183 yards and two interceptions. Tra Minter did it all in the loss. Along with 86 yards on 17 rush attempts, Minter also reeled in six catches for 36 yards.
Appalachian State has run the ball on 63.9 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 66.5 percent across possessions in conference play. South Alabama has a rush percentage of 61.9 percent, and has carried the ball 58.2 percent of the time against SBC opponents. The Mountaineers have run for 232.7 yards/game (including 227.3 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 19 scores via handoffs this year. The Jags are putting up 158.7 rush yards per game (135.7 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Mountaineers ought to own an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents. The Jaguars have registered 3.9 yards per carry and given up 4.6 YPC to opponents.
The Mountaineers offense has averaged 206 yards in the air overall (221 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing scores so far. The Jags have put up 153.9 pass yards per contest (164 in the SBC) and have six total pass TDs.
Appalachian State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 149 yards and throw for 208.8 yards per game. The South Alabama defense has allowed 201.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 203.6 yards per game on the ground. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.63 to opponents, while the Jags have given up a 7.1 ANY/A.
Thomas has been more effective than Johnson recently, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.89for the season (and 7.20 over the past two games). Johnson’s ANY/A is 2.42 for the season and 5.36 across his past two games.
These two programs faced off last year with the final result being a 52-7 win for Appalachian State.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at South Alabama Jaguars Free Pick
SU Winner: South Alabama, ATS Winner: South Alabama, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Appalachian State defense has sacked opposing QBs 15 times this year. South Alabama has recorded just nine sacks.
- South Alabama has lost seven fumbles in 2019 while the Appalachian State offense has lost one.
- The Mountaineers offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jaguars have put up four such plays.
- The Appalachian State defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40 yards or more, while South Alabama has given up five such plays.
- The Appalachian State offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Alabama has created 11 such runs.
- The Mountaineers defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Jaguars have given up 10 such runs.
- The Over/Under for South Alabama’s previous game was set at 55. The under cashed in the 37-13 loss to Troy.
- In its last three matches, South Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three contests, Appalachian State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Appalachian State’s last game going into it was 65.5. The under cashed in the team’s 52-7 triumph over Louisiana-Monroe.
- Appalachian State has produced 4.7 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.7 over its last two.
- South Alabama has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.5 over its last two.
