Two offenses with nearly opposite offensive schemes, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-10) are set to meet the New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. This MWC game kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FCBK. These two MWC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2018.
Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
New Mexico is entering this MWC game as a noticeable underdog and is currently getting 10 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to spend $400 to net $100 back on the Rainbow Warriors (-400). The Lobos are getting +300 moneyline odds. If one school finds paydirt early it’ll result in a decent in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 69.5 points.
This game’s line opened at 10.5, while the total hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 69.5.
The profitable Rainbow Warriors have gained 4.1 units so far and are 3-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-3.
The Lobos have lost 2.0 units this season. The team is 3-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-4.
The Rainbow Warriors are 4-3 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 2-5 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Rainbow Warriors lost to Air Force 56-26 in a blowout where Cole McDonald completed 34-of-52 passes for 404 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. McDonald (41 rushing yards on 10 attempts) also led the ground attack. Jared Smart (11 receptions, 140 yards) and Cedric Byrd II (seven catches, 59 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Wyoming got the victory against this New Mexico crew by a score of 23-10. The Lobos defense allowed the Cowboys to rush for 259 yards on 55 attempts, including two rush TDs. Xazavian Valladay torched the defense, putting up 127 rushing yards and a score on 33 attempts for Wyoming. As a group, the Lobos collectively completed 14-of-28 passes for 203 yards and one touchdown. Sheriron Jones went nine-for-17 for 143 yards while Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti was five-of-10 for 60 yards and one touchdown. Ahmari Davis (86 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Bryson Carroll (55 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running game while Jordan Kress (four receptions, 94 yards) and Aaron Molina (three catches, 35 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Hawaii has run the ball on 36 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 32.2 percent across possessions in conference play. New Mexico has an overall rush percentage of 60.6 percent, and has run the ball 64.1 percent of the time when facing MWC opponents. The Rainbow Warriors have produced 116.3 rush yards per game (including 111.3 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have five scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are logging 212.3 rush yards per game (221 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Lobos might hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 5.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Rainbow Warriors have recorded 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 5.6 YPC to opponents.
The Rainbow Warriors offense has logged a superb 359 yards per contest in the air overall (367.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Lobos have put up 205.4 pass yards per outing (151 against MWC competition) and have seven total pass TDs.
Defensively, Hawaii should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 204.4 rush yards and 224 pass yards per game. The New Mexico D has given up 348 yards per game to opposing passers and 146.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rainbow Warriors are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.78 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have allowed a whopping 9.73 ANY/A.
McDonald likely has the edge over Jones in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.71for the year and 7.46 over the last two games. Jones’ ANY/A is 2.80 for the year and 4.18 across his last two games.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. New Mexico Lobos Free Prediction
SU Winner: Hawaii, ATS Winner: Hawaii, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The New Mexico defense has produced 16 sacks on the year while Hawaii has just nine.
- New Mexico has lost six fumbles this season while Hawaii has lost 10.
- The Rainbow Warriors offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lobos have put up seven such plays.
- The Hawaii defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico has given up 14 such plays.
- The Hawaii offense has created four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while New Mexico has created 13 such runs.
- The Rainbow Warriors defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Lobos have given up 11 such runs.
- New Mexico has dropped six of its last seven games SU, with a three-point triumph over New Mexico State on September 21st representing the lone win over that stretch.
- Hawaii has produced 5.1 yards per carry over its past three games and 5.0 over its last two.
- New Mexico has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its past two.
