The Spartans of Michigan State (+6.5) are set to welcome the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5) to Spartan Stadium. The opening kickoff for this crucial conference game is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ABC.
Betting Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Penn State is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 6.5 points. The Nittany Lions are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Spartans are +210. If one side can get out in front early it will produce a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 44 points.
The line opened at 6 while the O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 44.
The profitable Nittany Lions are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 4.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 3-4.
The Spartans have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 8.4 units. They’re 2-5 ATS and also have an O/U record of 3-4.
The Nittany Lions have gone 7-0 straight up (SU), including 4-0 SU against conference opponents. The Spartans are 4-3 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.
When these two squads met a year ago, Michigan State emerged victorious by a score of 21-17.
The Nittany Lions are hoping to stay undefeated following a 28-21 win over Michigan last weekTheir defense allowed the Wolverines to run for 141 yards on 41 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Nico Collins had a good day for the Wolverines in that one with 89 yards on six catches. Offensively, Sean Clifford completed just 14 passes on 25 attempts for 182 yards and three touchdowns. KJ Hamler (six receptions, 108 yards, two TDs) and Pat Freiermuth (three catches, 28 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Michigan State were just blanked 38-0 by Wisconsin. The team’s defense allowed the Badgers to kill the clock by running for 222 yards on 46 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Jonathan Taylor put up a solid showing in the win for Wisconsin, posting 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts. As a group, the Spartans collectively completed 12-of-30 passes for 119 yards and two interceptions. Brian Lewerke went seven-for-16 for 53 yards and one interception while Rocky Lombardi was five-of-14 for 66 yards and one interception. Lewerke (4 yards on eight rush attempts) handled the running game as Darrell Stewart Jr. (five receptions, 59 yards) and Cody White (three catches, 34 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Penn State’s run the ball on 56.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan State has an overall rush percentage of 48.5 percent. The Nittany Lions have rushed for 178.3 yards per game (including 168 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 19 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Spartans are totaling 117.1 rush yards per game (87 in conference) and have six total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Nittany Lions should hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, since their running backs has logged 4.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 1.9 to opponents. The Spartans have rushed for 3.5 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 3.4 to opponents.
The Nittany Lions offense has averaged 261 yards through the air overall (246 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Spartans have recorded 240.3 pass yards per contest (216 against Big 10 competition) and have 11 total pass scores.
Defensively, Penn State has let opponents rush for an average of 66.3 yards and pass for 215.9 yards per game. The Michigan State D has given up 196.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 117.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Nittany Lions are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.07 to opponents, while the Spartans have allowed a 4.69 ANY/A.
Clifford likely has the edge over Lewerke in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 10.56for the season (and 6.65 over the last two outings). Lewerke’s ANY/A is 7.43 for the season and 2.73 across his past two games.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan State Spartans Free Prediction
SU Winner: Penn State, ATS Winner: Penn State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Penn State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 28 times this season. Michigan State has registered just 20 sacks.
- The Michigan State offense has lost five fumbles this season while the Penn State offense has lost four.
- The Nittany Lions offense has tallied 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Spartans have accounted for three such plays.
- The Penn State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Michigan State has given up three such plays.
- The Penn State offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Michigan State has created six such runs.
- The Nittany Lions defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Spartans have given up eight such runs.
- The O/U for Michigan State’s last outing going into it was 40. The under cashed in the 38-0 loss to Wisconsin.
- Over its last three contests, Michigan State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three contests, Penn State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Penn State’s last game was 47. The over cashed in the team’s 28-21 win over Michigan.
- Penn State has produced 3.7 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.4 over its last two.
- Michigan State has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.0 over its past two.
