A couple of schools that like to run the football, Wildcats of Kentucky (+10.5) are preparing to greet their SEC rival Missouri Tigers (-10.5) in Kroger Field. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and SEC Network will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Missouri Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is a live dog and is currently getting 10.5 points in this SEC game. The Tigers are also receiving -425 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +315. If one squad finds paydirt early it will create a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points.
Sharp bettors have been siding with the Tigers, as the line opened at 9.5. The game’s total has not moved after being initially placed at 47.5.
The underwhelming Tigers are down 6.5 units so far in 2019 and 4-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-5.
The Wildcats have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-4.
The Tigers have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 3-4 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.
The Tigers are on the rebound after a 21-14 loss to Vanderbilt last weekTheir defense allowed the Commodores to run for 150 yards on 42 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Ke’Shawn Vaughn was on a different level for the Commodores in that one with 96 rushing yards and a score on 29 attempts, along with 80 yards and a score on four catches. Offensively, Kelly Bryant completed only 13 passes on 26 attempts for 140 yards, as well as one score and a pick. Bryant (72 yards on 16 rush attempts) also led the running attack in the loss and was complemented by Larry Rountree III (29 yards on 12 carries, one TD). Jonathan Nance (three receptions, 34 yards) and Johnathon Johnson (three catches, nine yards) handled the receiving duties.
Kentucky were just shut out 21-0 by Georgia. The defense allowed the Bulldogs to run for 235 yards on 43 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. D’Andre Swift was on a different level for Georgia, recording 179 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 attempts. For Kentucky, Lynn Bowden Jr. completed two-of-15 passes for 17 yards. Bowden Jr. (99 yards on 17 rush attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Bryce Oliver (one receptions, 9 yards) and Clevan Thomas Jr. (one catch, eight yards) led all Kentucky pass-catchers.
Each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Missouri’s run the ball on 57.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Kentucky has a rush percentage of 56.8. The Tigers have produced 192.9 rush yards/game (including 193.3 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 12 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Wildcats are averaging 187.7 rushing yards per game (179.8 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.
The Tigers offensive scheme has averaged 255.6 yards through the air overall (232 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 167 pass yards per contest (140 in the SEC) and have seven total pass TDs.
Missouri seems to have an edge in both defensive phases. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 114 yards and pass for 156.1 yards per game. The Kentucky defense has allowed 182.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 182.0 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.67 to opponents, while the Wildcats have given up a 4.82 ANY/A.
Bryant has been more productive than Bowden Jr. lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.57for the season and 6.09 over the past two games. Bowden Jr.’s ANY/A is 2.65 for the season and 3.75 over his past two outings.
When these two squads met last year, Kentucky emerged victorious by a score of 15-14.
Missouri Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Free Prediction
SU Winner: Missouri, ATS Winner: Missouri, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Missouri’s last game was 56.5. The under cashed in the team’s 21-14 loss to Vanderbilt.
- Missouri, as a team, has produced 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its last two.
- Kentucky has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
- Kentucky has lost seven fumbles this season while Missouri has let four get away.
- In its last three matchups, Missouri is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Kentucky’s last game going into it was 45. The under cashed in that 21-0 defeat to Georgia.
- In its last three matches, Kentucky is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Tigers offense has created seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wildcats have put up two such plays.
- The Missouri defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kentucky has given up zero such plays.
- The Missouri offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Kentucky has created 18 such runs.
- The Tigers defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up 12 such runs.
- The Kentucky D has tallied 15 sacks on the year while Missouri has 13.
