The South Florida Bulls (+1) are heading north to face their AAC nemesis East Carolina Pirates at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to get going at 3:45 p.m. ET and spectators can watch the action on ESPNU.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. South Florida Bulls
East Carolina is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 1 point in this Saturday AAC game. The Bulls are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Pirates are -105. Multiple good live betting possibilities may exist during the game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 50 points.
The game’s line opened at 0. The O/U hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 50.
The Bulls have lost 1.4 units so far in 2019 and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 4-3.
The Pirates have lost 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-6.
The Bulls have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against AAC opponents. The Pirates are 3-4 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Bulls fell to Navy 35-3 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Midshipmen to run for 434 yards on 59 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. On the offensive side, the Bulls completed 15-of-30 passes for 114 yards and one interception. Jordan McCloud went 11-for-23 for 50 yards and one interception while Kirk Rygol completed four-of-seven for 64 yards. Jordan Cronkrite (76 yards on 17 rush attempts) and the signal-caller McCloud (26 yards on 10 carries) mounted the ground attack. Randall St. Felix (four receptions, 22 yards) and Bryce Miller (three catches, 28 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, UCF knocked off this East Carolina team by a score of 41-28. Holton Ahlers completed 23-of-37 passes for 313 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Demetrius Mauney (74 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Ahlers (47 yards on 15 carries, one TD) mounted the running attack as C.J. Johnson (eight receptions, 106 yards) and Tyler Snead (four catches, 84 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. South Florida’s run the ball on 55.8 percent of its offensive possessions while East Carolina has a rush percentage of 54.5. The Bulls have rushed for 156.7 yards per game (including 172.3 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have nine scores on the ground this year. The Pirates are logging 162.1 rushing yards per game (117.3 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Pirates should own an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has given up just 14 sacks while their D-line has logged 17 sacks. The Bulls offensive line has given up 29 sacks and their defense has forced only 19 sacks.
The Bulls offense has averaged 172.1 yards in the air overall (197.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Pirates have recorded 218.4 pass yards per contest (227 against AAC foes) and have seven total pass scores.
Defensively, South Florida seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 213 yards and pass for 180.7 yards per game. The East Carolina defense has allowed 231.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 170.1 yards per game on the ground. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.77 to opponents, while the Pirates have given up a 6.39 ANY/A.
Ahlers probably has the edge over McCloud in this matchup. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 4.95 for the year and 6.11 over his past two games while McCloud’s ANY/A is 3.78 and 0.90 over the past two games.
When these two schools faced one another last year, South Florida won by a touchdown 20-13.
South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates Betting Pick
SU Winner: South Florida, ATS Winner: South Florida, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for South Florida’s previous game going into it was 53. The under cashed in the team’s 35-3 loss to Navy.
- As a team, South Florida has produced 5.7 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
- East Carolina has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.
- Both teams have lost four fumbles this year.
- In its last three contests, South Florida is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for East Carolina’s last game was 64.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-28 loss to UCF.
- Over its last three games, East Carolina is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Bulls offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Pirates have put up three such plays.
- The South Florida defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40+ yards, while East Carolina has given up six such plays.
- The South Florida offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while East Carolina has created 16 such runs.
- The Bulls defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Pirates have given up 11 such runs.
- The South Florida defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this year. East Carolina has recorded 17 sacks.
