The No. 16 SMU Mustangs (-13.5) aren’t traveling far to face their in-conference nemesis Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium. ESPN will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs vs. Houston Cougars
Houston enters this AAC matchup as a big underdog and is currently receiving 13.5 points. If they want to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to wager $600 in order to net $100 back on the Mustangs (-600). The Cougars are getting +425 moneyline odds. If one program catches a lucky break early it will produce a solid live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 65.5 points.
Early action has shifted in favor of the Mustangs, as the opening line was 12.5. The O/U has yet to move after it was initially set at 65.5.
The profitable Mustangs have gained 8.5 units so far and are 6-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 7-0.
The Cougars have lost 0.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-4.
The Mustangs are 7-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Cougars are 3-4 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Mustangs are hoping to stay undefeated following a 45-21 victory over Temple last week. Shane Buechele completed only 30-of-53 passes for 457 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. Xavier Jones (105 rushing yards on 29 attempts) led the ground attack in the win while James Proche (nine receptions, 80 yards, one TD) and Reggie Roberson Jr. (eight catches, 250 yards, three TDs) handled the receiving duties.
Houston is coming off of a 24-17 win over Connecticut. The team’s defense let the Huskies rush for 168 yards on 31 attempts. Kevin Mensah had a productive outing in the defeat, recording 93 rushing yards on 12 attempts for Connecticut. For Houston, Logan Holgorsen completed seven-of-15 passes for 123 yards and one touchdown. Kyle Porter had an outstanding statline. In addition to 68 yards on 18 rush attempts (and one TD), Porter also reeled in three catches for 36 yards.
SMU’s run the ball on 56.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has a rush percentage of 60.5 percent. The Mustangs have produced 205.7 rush yards/game (including 191 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 22 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Cougars are averaging 221.6 rush yards per game (200 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then it appears the Mustangs ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has allowed just 31 sacks while their D-line logged 25 sacks. The Cougars, on the other hand, have given up 30 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 23 times.
The Mustangs offense has tallied 315.4 yards/game in the air overall (339.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Cougars have put up 172 pass yards per game (214 against AAC foes) and have 11 total pass TDs.
SMU appears to have an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 118.6 yards and pass for 251.4 yards per game. The Houston defense has given up 299.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 174.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mustangs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.14 to opposing QBs, while the Cougars have given up an 8.24 ANY/A.
Buechele has been more effective than Tune lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 8.58for the season (and 8.48 over the last two games). Tune’s ANY/A is 4.42 for the season and 2.93 across his past two games.
When these two programs met last year, SMU won by two touchdowns 45-31.
SMU Mustangs vs. Houston Cougars Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Houston, ATS Winner: Houston, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The SMU defense has 29 sacks on the year while Houston has just 12.
- Both offenses have lost four fumbles this season.
- The Mustangs offense has registered 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Cougars have put up five such plays.
- The SMU defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Houston has given up nine such plays.
- The SMU offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Houston has created 16 such runs.
- The Mustangs defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cougars have given up 14 such runs.
- The O/U for Houston’s last match going into it was 56. The under cashed in the 24-17 victory over Connecticut.
- Over its last three matchups, Houston is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, SMU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for SMU’s last game going into it was 59.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-21 win over Temple.
- SMU has produced 3.8 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.2 over its last two.
- Houston has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its past two.
