The New England Patriots (-9.5) will clash with their AFC East rival New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. ESPN will televise the action and this Monday Night Football game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Thursday NightBetting Preview: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
In this early-week AFC game, New England is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 9.5 points. The Patriots are also receiving -440 moneyline odds while the Jets are +310. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 42 points. If the favorite gets down in the early stages, it’ll likely generate a worthy in-game betting scenario.
The game’s total has shifted lower after opening at 43. The original spread of 9.5 has stayed firm.
The Patriots have gained 2.0 units this season and are 4-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-4.
The Jets have lost 1.1 units for moneyline bettors so far. They’re 2-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 2-3.
The Patriots have gone 6-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Jets are 1-4 SU overall and 0-2 SU against divisional foes.
The Patriots are looking to stay undefeated following a 35-14 victory over the Giants in Week 6 where Tom Brady completed 31 passes on 41 attempts for 334 yards and one interception. Sony Michel (86 yards on 22 rush attempts) led the running attack in the win. Julian Edelman (nine receptions, 113 yards) and James White (nine catches, 46 yards) handled the receiving duties.
New York just picked up a 24-22 win over Dallas last week. The team’s defense allowed the Cowboys to rush for 129 yards on 34 attempts, including two rush TDs. Ezekiel Elliott was on a different level for Dallas, putting up 105 rushing yards and a score on 28 attempts, along with 47 yards and a score on five catches. For New York, Sam Darnold completed 23-of-32 passes for 338 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Le’Veon Bell (50 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack in the win as Jamison Crowder (six receptions, 98 yards) and Robby Anderson (five catches, 125 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
New England has run the ball on 42.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New York has a rush percentage of 40.6 percent. The Patriots have produced 101.5 rush yards per game (including 88.7 per game against East opponents) and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Jets are averaging 64 rush yards per game (52 in conference) and have two total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Patriots ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only 21 sacks while the D-line registered 30 sacks. The Jets O-line has allowed 37 sacks and their defense has created only 39 sacks.
The Pats offensive scheme has averaged 298.2 yards in the air overall (244.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Jets have produced 186.4 pass yards per game (137 against AFC foes) and have three total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, New England appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 73.7 rush yards and 187.2 pass yards per game. The New York defense has given up 273 yards per game to opposing passers and 95.8 yards per game on the ground. The Pats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 1.51 to opposing QBs, while the Jets have given up a 6.37 ANY/A.
Offensively, Brady has put up 1,395 passing yards this season. He’s completed 121-of-186 attempts with seven scores through the air and only two interceptions. Brady’s got a 7.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.61 over the last two outings.
We’re looking for Patriots to control the pace by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Julian Edelman (339 yards, one TD), Sony Michel (257 rush yards, two rush TDs, 27 receiving yards) and James White (36 rush yards, 178 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have really been focal points in the offensive scheme for New England.
In the other locker room, Sam Darnold has completed 51-of-73 passes for 513 yards, three TDs and one INT. Darnold’s ANY/A stands at 6.28 for the season and 9.44 over his last two games.
The Jets should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Le’Veon Bell (124 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Robby Anderson (240 receiving yards and one receiving TD) and Demaryius Thomas (61 receiving yards) have gotten a lot of looks lately.
New England Patriots at New York Jets Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Patriots, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
- The New England D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times this season. New York has produced just seven sacks.
- As a team, New England has rushed for 3.8 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.0 over its last two.
- New York has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.
- Over its last three matches, New York is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for New England’s last game was 43. The over cashed in the team’s 35-14 win over the Giants.
- Over its last three games, New England is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for New York’s last match going into it was 43.5. The over cashed in the 24-22 triumph over Dallas.
