The Miami Dolphins (+17) are heading north to take on their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. This early afternoon game is scheduled to start at 1:00 p.m. ET and fans can view the action live on CBS.
Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Buffalo has been tabbed as heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 17 points to Miami. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 38.5 points, and some solid live betting opportunities might present themselves during this matchup.
The under is getting most of the recent sharp action. The game’s O/U initially opened at 40.5.
The less-than-stellar Dolphins are down 3.0 units so far and 1-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-4.
The surprising Bills have gained 3.6 units this season. They’re 4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 0-5.
The Dolphins have gone 0-5 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Bills are 4-1 SU overall and 1-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Dolphins are still looking for win No. 1 after a narrow 17-16 loss to Washington last weekTheir defense allowed the Redskins to eat up the clock by rushing for 145 yards on 33 attempts. Adrian Peterson had a productive day for the Redskins in that one with 118 rushing yards on 23 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, the Dolphins completed 27-of-43 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Josh Rosen went 15-for-25 for 85 yards and two interceptions while Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 12-of-18 for 132 yards and one touchdown. Kenyan Drake (40 rushing yards on 10 attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the loss while Drake (six receptions, 30 yards) and Walton (five catches, 43 yards) handled the receiving duties.
The Buffalo Bills just earned a 14-7 win over Tennessee. The defensive unit allowed the Titans to rush for 102 yards on 27 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Derrick Henry had a good showing in the loss, recording 78 rushing yards and a score on 20 attempts for Tennessee. For Buffalo, Josh Allen completed 23-of-32 passes for 219 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Frank Gore (60 yards on 14 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Allen (27 yards on 10 carries) led the ground game in the win while John Brown (five receptions, 75 yards) and T.J. Yeldon (four catches, 13 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Miami has run the ball on 33.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 44.6 percent. The Dolphins have produced 58.2 rush yards per game (including 42 per game against East opponents) and have only one score via handoffs this year. The Bills are logging 139.6 rush yards per game (131.5 in conference) and have six total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Bills could have the advantage when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Dolphins have tallied 3.2 yards per carry while allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Dolphins offensive scheme has tallied 200.4 yards per game through the air overall (186 per game against conference opposition) and has three passing TD so far. The Bills have produced 249.8 pass yards per game (267 against AFC competition) and have five total pass scores.
Defensively, Miami has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 169.6 yards and pass for 274.4 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 201.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 87.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.95 to opposing QBs, while the Dolphins have given up a staggering 10.79 ANY/A.
Offensively, Rosen has amassed 387 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 48 percent of his 85 attempts with zero scores through the air and four interceptions. He has a 1.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 1.76 over the last two games.
We’re expecting the Dolphins to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. The duo of Kenyan Drake (109 rush yards, 108 receiving yards) and Mark Walton (48 rush yards, 55 receiving yards) have brought significant production to the Miami offensive scheme.
Josh Allen has managed to complete 89-of-135 passes for 969 yards, five TDs and four INTs for Buffalo. His ANY/A sits at 5.86 for the year and 2.74 over his last two games.
The Bills also prefer to rely on their backfield. In addition to Frank Gore (37 receiving yards), John Brown (four rush yards, 321 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Cole Beasley (192 receiving yards) have gotten a lot of action lately.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills NFL Prediction
SU Winner: , ATS Winner: Dolphins, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Dolphins offense has created two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bills have put up three such plays.
- The Miami defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Buffalo has given up one such play.
- The Miami offense has created zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Buffalo has created five such runs.
- The Dolphins defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bills have given up three such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has created 12 sacks on the year while Miami has just five.
- As a team, Miami has averaged 3.6 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.0 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its past two.
- In its last three matchups, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Miami’s previous game was set at 42.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-16 loss to Washington.
- Over its last three matchups, Miami is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous outing was set at 39. The under cashed in the 14-7 win over Tennessee.
