Two schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Philip Montgomery and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+16) are set to pay a visit to their in-conference nemesis No. 21 Cincinnati Bearcats (-16) at Nippert Stadium. The daytime matchup is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPNU has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Golden Hurricane approach this Saturday AAC game as a big underdog and they’re currently being given 16 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to put up $1,000 to win $100 back on the Bearcats (-1000). The Golden Hurricane are getting +625 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 49 points. Some good live betting opportunities may be unveiled during the game.
The game’s total has swung much lower after initially being set at 51. The opening line has yet to change.
The Golden Hurricane are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.2 units this season. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-4.
The surprising Bearcats are up 4.5 units so far. They’re 5-1 ATS and also have an O/U record of 2-4.
The Golden Hurricane have gone just 2-4 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against AAC opponents. The Bearcats are 5-1 SU overall and 2-0 SU in conference play.
Cincinnati enters this one on a two-game losing streak while Tulsa has won its last four in a row. The Golden Hurricane fell to Navy 45-17 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Midshipmen to eat up the clock by running for 388 yards on 58 rush attempts, including six rush TDs. Malcolm Perry was on a different level for the Midshipmen in that one with 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 20 attempts. On the offense, Zach Smith completed only 23-of-49 passes for 254 yards and one touchdown. Shamari Brooks (55 yards on 12 rush attempts) mounted the running attack in the loss. JuanCarlos Santana (nine receptions, 98 yards) and Keenen Johnson (three catches, 19 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Cincinnati just earned a 38-23 win over Houston. The defense allowed the Cougars to run for 190 yards on 37 rush attempts. Marquez Stevenson had a good outing in the defeat for Houston, posting 120 yards on three catches. For Cincinnati, Desmond Ridder completed 14-of-24 passes for 263 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Michael Warren II (68 yards on 17 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Ridder (50 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the ground game in the win as Rashad Medaris (three receptions, 121 yards, one TD) and Malick Mbodj (three catches, 24 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Tulsa’s run the ball on 51 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 41.6 percent across possessions in conference play. Cincinnati has an overall run percentage of 61.6 percent, and has rushed the ball 57.7 percent of the time against AAC opponents. The Golden Hurricane have rushed for 107.8 yards/game (including 111.5 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Bearcats are logging 178.2 rushing yards per game (161.5 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Bearcats may have the advantage in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has logged 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Golden Hurricane have rushed for 2.7 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.
The Golden Hurricane offensive scheme has logged 271.3 yards per contest in the air overall (300 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Bearcats have recorded 216.8 pass yards per contest (206 against AAC foes) and have 13 total pass TDs.
Tulsa has let opponents rush for an average of 203.5 yards and pass for 192.7 yards per game. The Cincinnati defense has given up 199.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.5 yards per game on the ground. The Bearcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.47 to opponents, while the Golden Hurricane have given up a 6.59 ANY/A.
Offensively, Smith has put up 1,272 passing yards this season. He’s completed 102-of-184 attempts with six scores through the air and only one interception. Smith’s got a 5.94 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.64 over the last two games.
Desmond Ridder has completed 77-of-122 passes for 1,078 yards, 11 TDs and four INTs for Cincinnati. His ANY/A sits at 7.62 for the season and 6.90 over his last two games.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other last year.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Free Prediction
SU Winner: Cincinnati, ATS Winner: Cincinnati, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Cincinnati defense has sacked opposing QBs 14 times this season. Tulsa has produced just five sacks.
- Both offenses have lost three fumbles this year.
- The Golden Hurricane offense has registered six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bearcats have put up seven such plays.
- The Tulsa defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Cincinnati has given up five such plays.
- The Tulsa offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Cincinnati has created five such runs.
- The Golden Hurricane defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bearcats have given up six such runs.
- The O/U for Cincinnati’s last outing going into it was 50.5. The over cashed in the 38-23 triumph over Houston.
- In its last three games, Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matches, Tulsa is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Tulsa has lost four of its last five games SU, with a three-point win over Wyoming on September 21st representing the only victory over that span.
- The O/U for Tulsa’s last game going into it was 52.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-17 loss to Navy.
- Tulsa, as a team, has averaged 2.9 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.
- Cincinnati has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.3 over its last two.
