The Baylor Bears and Kansas State Wildcats are set to square off on the turf at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. This key conference showdown gets going at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN2. These squads met a year ago with the final outcome being a 37-34 win for Baylor.
Betting Preview: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears
Baylor is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 2 points in this Big 12 game. The Bears are also receiving +110 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are -130. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 52 points. If Kansas State falls behind early, it would likely produce a worthwhile in-game betting scenario.
Odds have moved slightly from where they originally opened. The line opened at -4 and the game’s O/U was initially set at 51.5.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Bears have gained 1.2 units and the Wildcats are up 1.5 units.
The Bears have gone 4-0 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Wildcats are 3-1 SU overall and are also 0-1 SU in conference play.
The Bears are looking to stay undefeated after a 23-21 victory over Iowa State last week where Charlie Brewer completed 26 passes for 307 yards and three touchdowns. Tyquan Thornton (11 receptions, 141 yards, one TD) and Denzel Mims (six catches, 106 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Kansas State just fell 26-13 to Oklahoma State. The team’s defense allowed the Cowboys to kill the clock by running for 373 yards on 44 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Chuba Hubbard was on a different level for Oklahoma State, recording 296 rushing yards and a score on 25 attempts. For Kansas State, Skylar Thompson completed 11-of-23 passes for 118 yards. James Gilbert (44 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) handled the running attack as Phillip Brooks (three receptions, 15 yards) and Dalton Schoen (three catches, 23 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Baylor has run the ball on 52.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas State has a rush percentage of 69.1 percent. The Bears have produced 216 rush yards/game and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are totaling 241.5 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.
Judging by the early season results, it seems like the Bears could hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 6.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.1 to opponents. The Wildcats have recorded 5.3 yards per carry and given up 6.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bears offense has logged 259.5 yards per game in the air overall and has 11 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 160.3 pass yards per contest and have four total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor has allowed 102.5 rush yards and 195 pass yards per game. The Kansas State D has allowed 127.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 196.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 2.89 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have allowed a 4.49 ANY/A.
Thompson has completed 37-of-58 passes for 481 yards, three TDs and zero INTs. Thompson’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.97 for the season and 5.81 over his past two outings. In the other huddle, Brewer is up to 669 passing yards this year. He’s completed 59-of-92 attempts with nine passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Brewer’s got an 8.77 ANY/A, including 8.65 over the last two games.
Baylor Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats Free Pick
SU Winner: Kansas State, ATS Winner: Kansas State, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Baylor D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this year. Kansas State has recorded just five sacks.
- The Kansas State offense has lost five fumbles in 2019 while Baylor has lost three.
- The Bears offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wildcats have put up zero such plays.
- Both teams have allowed zero pass plays of 40 yards or more and three pass plays of 30+ yards.
- The Baylor offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas State has created five such runs.
- The Bears defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Wildcats have given up eight such runs.
- The O/U for Kansas State’s last game was 59.5. The under cashed in that 26-13 loss to Oklahoma State.
- In its last three games, Kansas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matchups, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Baylor’s last game was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the team’s 23-21 victory over Iowa State.
- Baylor has averaged 5.5 yards per carry across its past three games and 3.3 over its last two.
- Kansas State has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.1 over its last two.
