The No. 18 UCF Knights (-4) are flying north to battle the Cincinnati Bearcats at Nippert Stadium. This crucial AAC matchup starts at 8:00 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to televise the action.
Betting Preview: UCF Knights vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 4 points in this Friday AAC matchup. The Knights are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Bearcats are +165. If one side can get out in front early it will result in a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 60.5 points.
The sharp action is siding with the Knights. The line initially opened at 3 while the game’s over/under was set originally at 60.
The Knights have lost 2.0 units so far and are 3-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 3-2.
The Bearcats have gained 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-3.
The Knights are 4-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Bearcats are 3-1 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play.
These two teams faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 38-13 win for UCF.
The Knights are coming off a resounding 56-21 win over Connecticut last week where the Knights completed 21-of-30 passes for 377 yards and four touchdowns. Dillon Gabriel went 11-for-16 for 281 yards and three touchdowns while Darriel Mack Jr. completed nine-of-13 for 97 yards and one touchdown. Bentavious Thompson (71 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) provided the running attack while Gabriel Davis (five receptions, 119 yards, three TDs) and Marlon Williams (three catches, 62 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Cincinnati just picked up a sound 52-14 win over Marshall. The defensive unit allowed the Thundering Herd to run for 125 yards on 29 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Brenden Knox was a bright spot in the loss for Marshall, accounting for 49 rushing yards on 16 attempts, along with 50 yards on four catches. For Cincinnati, Desmond Ridder completed 18-of-22 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Warren II (42 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Tavion Thomas (70 yards on 11 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Alec Pierce (six receptions, 108 yards, one TD) and Josiah Deguara (three catches, 42 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
UCF has run the ball on 57.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 63.4 percent. The Knights have produced 232.6 rush yards/game and have 13 scores on the ground this year. The Bearcats are putting up 186.5 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Knights should have the advantage when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has allowed just 19 sacks while the D-line logged 29 sacks. The Bearcats, on the other hand, have given up 24 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 31 times.
The Knights offensive scheme has logged an astonishing 336 yards/game through the air overall and has 18 passing scores so far. The Bearcats have produced 222.3 pass yards per game and have eight total pass TDs.
Defensively, UCF has let opponents run for an average of 119.6 yards and pass for 205.2 yards per game. The Cincinnati D has allowed 167 yards per game to opposing passers and 130.3 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.10 to opponents, while the Bearcats have allowed a 5.23 ANY/A.
Gabriel likely has the advantage over Ridder in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 15.30for the season and 8.92 over his last two outings. Ridder’s ANY/A is 8.08 for the season and 7.64 across his past two games.
UCF Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Pick
SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: UCF, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The O/U for UCF’s previous game going into it was 65. The over cashed in the team’s 56-21 victory over Connecticut.
- As a team, UCF has rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt across its last three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
- Cincinnati has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.7 over its past two.
- The Cincinnati offense has lost three fumbles this season while UCF has let two get away.
- In its last three matchups, UCF is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Cincinnati’s last game was set at 47. The over cashed in the 52-14 triumph over Marshall.
- Over its last three matches, Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Knights offense has registered 10 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bearcats have put up five such plays.
- The UCF defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 or more yards, while Cincinnati has given up two such plays.
- The UCF offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Cincinnati has created four such runs.
- The Knights defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bearcats have given up three such runs.
- The UCF defense has 11 sacks on the year while Cincinnati has 10.
