Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins will do battle against their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field in a Thursday showdown. SportsNet New York will televise the matchup and the game will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds
The Marlins are 55-103 SU and are 81-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 15.9 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 6.0 units ATS. The Mets, on the other hand, are 83-75 SU and 81-76 ATS. The team’s lost 7.7 units for moneyline bettors and 1.9 units ATS.
New York games have an over/under record of 79-65-13 in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 75-70-12.
Right-hander Jordan Yamamoto is the probable starter for the visiting Marlins. Yamamoto is 4-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 72 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA against New York this year.
The Mets are sending righty Zack Wheeler (11-7, 3.99 ERA) to the mound. Wheeler has 185 strikeouts and 50 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.29. Wheeler is 2-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 1.20 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.
Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.17 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.09, along with a WHIP of 1.29 and a K/9 of 9.25.
Marlins hitters have slashed .241/.301/.373 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas continue to lead Miami’s offense. Castro is hitting .267/.296/.428 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 66 runs scored, while Rojas has a .281 average with five homers, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, New York’s pitchers have given up 4.6 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.88, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 72 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.32 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.73.
The New York offense has produced 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .237/.322/.435 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Shortstop Amed Rosario and left fielder Jeff McNeil have led the Mets’ hitters this year. Rosario is hitting .287/.323/.434 with 15 home runs, 71 RBIs, 75 runs and 19 steals, while McNeil’s line is .318/.384/.531 with 23 homers, 75 RBIs and 83 runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 18.4 units and are 56-59 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 51 of those games, compared to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 1.2 units and are 60-57 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 61 of those games, as opposed to 46 which went under the total.
Marlins at Mets MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in three of New York’s last seven games.
- Miami has posted 23.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.2 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 17 over their last 10.
- The Marlins have a team OPS of .674 this season and an OPS of .663 against right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS stands at .771 overall and .765 versus righties.
