Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins will head north to face their divisional nemesis New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York is in line to broadcast the matchup and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets Odds
Miami (+180) is the underdog to New York (-190) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-125) and Mets -1.5 (+105).
The Marlins are 54-101 SU and are 78-76 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 18.9 units for moneyline gamblers and 9.2 units ATS. Miami’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Mets, on the other hand, are 81-74 SU and 80-74 ATS. They’ve lost 7.2 units for moneyline bettors and 0.3 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.
Mets games have a 77-65-12 over/under record in 2019. Marlins games have gone over 73 times, gone under 69 times and pushed on 12 occasions.
Caleb Smith is getting the nod for Miami. The left-handed Smith is 9-10 with a 4.24 ERA and 164 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 3.27 ERA against New York this year (two starts).
The Mets will send lefty Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16 ERA) to the mound. Matz has 143 strikeouts and 47 walks to his credit as well as a 1.33 WHIP. Matz is 1-1 with 16 strikeouts and a 2.87 ERA over three starts against Miami this year.
Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.54 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.19 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.11, along with a WHIP of 1.28 and a K/9 of 9.22.
The Marlins offense has slashed .240/.301/.372 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game this season, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Miami’s offense has been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas. Castro is slashing .271/.300/.435 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 65 runs scored, while Rojas (.283/.332/.384) has produced five homers, 45 RBIs and 48 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, New York’s pitching staff has yielded 4.6 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.85, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.11 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 69 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.27 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.96.
The New York hitters have produced 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .251/.337/.503 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that span.
The Mets’ offense has been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and outfielder Jeff McNeil. Rosario is slashing .286/.323/.431 with 14 home runs, 66 RBIs, 72 runs and 18 steals, and McNeil’s line is .317/.385/.534 with 23 homers, 73 RBIs and 82 runs.
The Marlins have gained 0.3 units and are 24-17 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 6.4 units and are 21-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 17 of those games, compared to 19 that went under the total.
Marlins vs. Mets Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- Miami has logged 28 extra-base hits over its last five games. New York has 21 XBH over its last five.
- The Mets have won four of their last five games SU.
- New York has posted 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.0 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
- The Marlins have a total OPS of .673 this season, including an OPS of .683 against left-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS stands at .771 overall and .793 against lefties.
